A Lot of Anger Burns in Conservative America

An obvious division among Republicans came to light in the Iowa caucuses. There will be more surprises to come.

The first primary event in the run for the U.S. presidency marked a significant start for Republicans. The results show how divided the party is and how uncertain the conservative movement in America is when it comes to its own identity.

There’s the classical pragmatic, business-like faction represented by Mitt Romney, who came away from Iowa with a razor-thin victory but who managed to ignite no enthusiastic fires and who, as the most moderate of the candidates and a Mormon to boot, is also under the close scrutiny of suspicious social conservatives. This Christian, ultra-conservative faction finds Rick Santorum more appealing. Santorum managed a surprisingly close second place finish to Romney despite the winner’s superior financial support and well-oiled campaign machinery.

Then there’s Libertarian Ron Paul who also achieved a surprisingly good result. He represents the radically anti-government, liberty-loving populist impulses in America. At the same time, he’s the candidate voters should fear the most because of his conspiracy theories and his isolationist tendencies, both of which can only be called very strange, at best. But Ron Paul would also represent a radical departure from many of the things Republicans believe in, such as American exceptionalism.

America’s troubling potential for anger

The good news is that Romney was able to win in such a socially conservative and racially homogeneous state. He has better prospects in less conservative states and also has the best chance as a moderate of beating Barack Obama. Obama’s campaign staff has already concluded that Romney will be their opponent in November.

The bad news is that the tea party movement’s libertarian impulses will help wild card candidate Ron Paul; Paul’s radicalism causes Republicans to cringe at the thought of him actually going head to head against Barack Obama. The Ron Paul phenomenon emphasizes the enormous potential for anger in the American electorate when it comes to the current state of affairs, an anger that could have unforeseen and surprising political ramifications.

That anger is nourished by the perception that the classic middle class American dream of getting ahead by hard work now seems threatened. Even well-educated youngsters now have difficulty finding jobs commensurate with their educations. And the ongoing economic crisis threatens those who already have jobs with income stagnation. At the same time, many citizens have the feeling that the elites in the United States are responsible for their miseries but yet don’t share in the pain that “Middle America” suffers.

Finally, America has meanwhile lost its status as the land of unlimited possibilities and upward social mobility. Five recent major studies found that opportunities for upward social mobility are now greater in many European countries than they are in America. To a greater degree than anywhere else in the developed world, America’s most wealthy come from families that are already wealthy. But neither Romney, nor Paul, nor Santorum have any satisfactory solutions to that problem. How Americans might start with little and become wealthy has never been a major concern among Republicans.

The Iowa caucuses show that America’s conservatives don’t exactly know what they want: Cultural warriors? Isolationists? Moralists? Businessmen? That’s why the Republican primaries will likely produce many more surprises.