From Iowa to Washington

Turmoil, dramatic moves behind the scenes, colossal bursts of ambition – the U.S. presidential primaries have offered to the world irresistible emotions comparable to the exhilaration provoked by the glorious weddings of European Royals. Instead of the modern version of the fairy tale about the girl who meets Prince Charming, the battle for the presidential nomination offers the old narrative of the ordinary man who forges his spirit and develops an iron personality while prevailing over an array of dreadful obstacles on his way to the White Palace. The sideliners overseas enjoy the political drama raging in the U.S., eased by a sense of relief that they are not the ones who have to make tough choices. Our enjoyment is very similar to the delight of non-European onlookers, who admire the bright pomposity of royal weddings with the comfort of knowing that they do not need to pay the astonishing bill.

The battle for the Republican nomination that has just broken promises to meet the widest expectation of intriguing twists, heated emotions and political extravagances. After a problematic presidential campaign debut starring colorful but weak candidates, the results from the first round in Iowa promised to fuel the intrigue – a lengthy count of votes showed a tiny margin of eight votes between the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who is supposedly leading the race, and the former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Not long ago, Santorum was disregarded by journalists, strategists and voters who did not see him as a serious candidate. Days before the Iowa vote, a battle between Romney and the libertarian icon Ron Paul was widely expected. The unexpected development not only drew more attention to the pressing disagreements in the Republican camp, but also gave important hints signaling the direction in which the national elections could develop.

Catcher in the Corn

Due to its small population (and thus small number of voters), agriculture-based economy and lack of megapolises, Iowa is often referred to as the flyover state. Every four years, though, the state standing at the start line of the presidential primaries’ extensive marathon track embraces the ambitious task to identify the future presidential candidate. This time the indecisive result which fails to designate a favorite reinforces the looming feeling that the right-wing is going through a painful process of redefining its future and the nomination procedure will have to include a debate over the course of the party itself.

In the U.S., they often say that while Democrats fall in love with romantic ideas, Republicans prefer to adhere to party discipline. This conservative maxim is about to be proven wrong by the series of bumpy ups and downs that the opponents of the moderate Romney went through so far.

The Democrats, although dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s first mandate, have been unusually disciplined and managed to suffocate any idea of raising a Democratic opponent against the president before it was born. To force a non-popular White House resident to face a rival within his own party in the primaries is not uncommon in American politics. That’s what happened to Jimmy Carter who was challenged by Ted Kennedy in 1980. Although the frustration in the left-wing has piled up, the Democrats spare a similar trouble to Barack Obama.

In the Republican camp, it looks like the electorate cannot find peace with the establishment candidate Romney and constantly falls in love with one of his possible opponents. Shortly after the initial enthusiasm lost steam, though, the voters turned their backs to every one of them. Despite the predictions, the subsequent disappointment of the core Republican voters with Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, Texas Governor Rick Perry, businessman Herman Cain and the former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich did not strengthen the support for the leading candidate.

Why not? Because the populist Tea Party doesn’t believe that Romney will follow a decisive right political agenda while conservative evangelists are not able to put up with his Mormon background. On the other hand, the only Romney rival who has been left untarnished by the presidential race so far is Santorum – simply because, till Iowa, nobody has taken him seriously. His strong religious background and conservative political views all of a sudden turn out to be enough for the Iowa voters to forget that Santorum has a record of diverging federal money for projects he favors and that in 2006 he lost a re-election campaign for the Senate with 17 percent.

Following that train of thought, the battle for the Senate keeps on fueling the debate about the

Future of the Conservatives

A future serving the more pragmatic center right wing, the populist Tea Party, whose right wing political views are going towards the far right and the conservative evangelists.

“It is quite common for a party in opposition to have problems with its identity in terms of shaping its message and identifying the best candidate,*” explains David Yepsen, political columnist with the most influential Iowa newspaper the Des Moines Register and director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, during a discussion with journalists. Like him, most commentators believe that when the long campaign marathon is over, Romney will be the nominee. To get there, though, he will need to sharpen his political views which may keep away the independent voters, minorities, and women when Election Day comes in November.

At first, it looked like president Obama could only win from the lengthy Republican bickering. This year, though, the long-established course of the constant Republicans-Democrats battle has been disrupted by the unusual popularity of Texas senator, and libertarian favorite, Ron Paul. The political view of the 76-year-old man, who sees the government as a source of evil and corruption which disables and corrupts the individual, are too extreme to attract more than a third of the Republican vote and just 21 percent of the electorate vote in Iowa where he ranked third. Though, as David Yepsen said, Ron Paul is not the important one here. What is important is

Ron Paul’s Message

Circled by a flock of 20-year-old volunteers in the night before the first round of the primaries, the veteran politician signaled clearly his intentions to unite those disappointed with the inertia and the lack of action from both the right and the left. “Ron Paul attracts the votes that Obama gathered four years ago. These same voters are disappointed today with how little the change promisor has changed and with the direction in which the change has gone,*” said David Yepsen.

Ron Paul offers the disappointed a whole array of courageous ideas – from getting rid of the Federal Reserve and going back to the gold standard, to a drastic cut down of the government administration and shutdown of military interventions and the ever-growing defense budget. The fact that for a quarter of a century he has not changed his position in Congress, no matter how unpopular or how criticized it was, is an additional magnet for those sickened by political lackluster. Ron Paul is probably aware that his chances for the presidency are not real, but the presidential campaign gives him a huge tribune from which to voice his beliefs and the goal of his life – to change American politics.

“When Election Day approaches, both Barack Obama and the Republican nominee will start to look for opportunities to touch the issues that Ron Paul is bringing about,*” posits David Yepsen. Ironically, the pressure on the Democratic candidate will be much greater since he is the candidate of the young, the well-educated and the passionate for bold reforms.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.