In the Short Term, US and Iran Fear an Accidental Misfire

The new year will not see an escalation in the game of chicken between Iran and the nations that rally around the United States over the Iranian nuclear issue and the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Could Iran really block the Strait of Hormuz and could America and the West really move against them?

Under international law, the Strait of Hormuz is classified as international waters, or “high seas.” The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea stipulates that the breadth of each nation’s territorial sea is “up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles, measured from baselines determined in accordance with this Convention.” Although the narrowest point in the Strait of Hormuz is only 40 kilometers wide, nonetheless Iran does not have the right to control international waters that lie more than 12 nautical miles beyond its shores. In other words, according to the International Convention on the Law of the Sea, Iran does not have legal authority to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Indeed, Iran is well aware of this. The threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is a tactic that Iran is using in its struggle with America, Israel and the Western nations. So does Iran actually have the power and capability to carry out the blockade? As they say, “even a hare will bite when it is cornered.” We cannot eliminate the possibility that, if cornered by the U.S., Israel and the West, Iran might really be able to do it! If we look at Iran’s present capacities, they are fully capable of creating obstacles to the shipping channels of the Strait of Hormuz and harassing warships that pass through the Strait, but in terms of carrying out a large-scale, effective blockade of its entire shipping channel, Iran can achieve it at most for only a short period of time. America has for many years maintained a powerful naval force in the Persian Gulf, and when Iran’s military capabilities are compared to the United States and the Western allies, Iran is like a petty magician looking up at a powerful sorcerer. Based on assessments of their military power, America and its allies could smash the blockade in less than half a month and reopen the shipping channel.

Even so, neither the American nor the Iranian side is willing to let the situation reach this point. International analysts forecast that, if Iran succeeds in blocking off the Strait of Hormuz for only 30 days, the international price of crude oil could rise as high as $500 per barrel and cause America to suffer as much as $80 billion in losses. However, Iran would likewise gain no advantage: While closing the Strait would block the oil shipping routes of the Persian Gulf states, Iran would encounter difficulties exporting its own petroleum. More importantly, if Iran blockades the strait, it would inevitably lead to international condemnation and Iran would become a lonely hermit. Some of the countries that have opposed punishing Iran could change their original positions and America and its allies would then also have sufficient grounds to carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and even military and economic targets within their borders. So even Iranians themselves admit that the risks of blockading the Strait of Hormuz are too great, equivalent to a suicide attack.

In playing with America and the West, Iran is very good at carrying out “two-handed” tactics, hard on one hand, soft on the other. At the same time as they are threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran recently indicated a surprising willingness to reopen nuclear negotiations. This shows that Iran is very clear on the predicament it faces and hopes that the situation will ease up. Isn’t America in this same situation? Even though American warships twice encountered resistance from Iranian motor boats in the Strait of Hormuz on Jan. 6, a spokeswoman from the Pentagon on Jan. 13 merely declared, “This interaction … is commonplace. There is nothing in these that shows any kind of hostile intent.” Looking at the current circumstances, America’s military preparations for a strike on Iran are not ready. In addition, Obama currently faces the two important missions of stabilizing the economy and seeking reelection and is not willing to see the appearance of a conflict in the Persian Gulf that will be difficult to manage. In the short term, America and Iran will be equally anxious about an accidental misfire, and will “avoid shooting at the rats for fear of breaking the china.”*

The author is a cadre in the Headquarters of the General Staff [of the PLA]

*Editor’s note: The proverb could not be verified.