Forget it Obama!

Although Barack Obama, the American President-elect, vowed more than once to arrest al Qaeda’s ringleader Osama Bin Laden, this is unlikely to happen in the near future, according to some U.S. reports, wherein lies the economic dilemma.

As a start, the “Washington Post” wrote that the impasse of the international economy will be a hindrance to America’s war on international terrorism in the sense of reducing expenditures in the Defense and Intelligence Departments. Resultantly, Washington will not be able to stop a new sweep of security threats. On the other hand, the subsidies allotted to U.S. allies in the region will also be decreased, according to the American daily. This can weaken the abilities of these countries to pursue the al Qaeda network and its leaders: Bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri. And worst, the regimes of these countries may be vulnerable to be toppled.

Here Pakistan can stand as an example, due to its vital role in the War on Terror and having a nuclear weapons arsenal.

In reference to Obama’s promise to draw American troops away from Iraq and send them to Afghanistan and Pakistan to go after al Qaeda, the “New York Times” unveiled in the November 23th issue a secret American plan to demolish Pakistan, the sole Muslim Country with nuclear weaponry. This was demonstrated by the new map of South Asia that shows Pakistan divided up between India and Afghanistan. The newspaper also quoted American officials saying that 61-year-old Pakistan contains various races and four separate provinces with little in common. Besides, the Pakistani borders drawn by the British Empire are a bone of contention with its neighbors, especially India.

Yet, the financial crisis lied in wait for these vicious plans, preventing America from an immediate invasion of Pakistan and intensifying the economic and social instability Pakistan has witnessed since it took up arms in the American fight. To prove that fact, the U.S. cut its economic aid to Pakistan while continuing to provide facilitates to hunt al Qaeda in the tribes’ region. This in fact enraged the Pakistani people at their regime along with the American forces that borne the teeth of al Qaeda.

In addition, some American officials have misgivings about the declining petrol prices which will step up the unemployment rates in countries like Yemen, an opportunity al Qaeda will not miss to allure new members and weaken another rank in the American army in the War on Terror.

As to the domestic repercussions, the American National Intelligence director, Mike McConnell, warned that the big reduction in the Army and Intelligence budgets would not help the U.S. deter any new threats and the Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Intelligence and Analysis, Charles E. Allen, revealed that current financing levels before the Obama administration will not be sufficient in executing the already approved security plans which is possibly the most imminent danger.

Seemingly, al Qaeda will not have its fill of good news. A study undergone by the American National Intelligence council, called “The International Attitudes in 2025,” says that the current situation of the economy marks the collapse of the unipolar world, expecting the economic, political and even the military hegemony of the U.S. to be receding during the next two decades. The study also adds that the current critical situation in Wall Street will restore the world’s economic balance and the U.S. dollar that was once considered the main international currency will be reduced to the value of other currencies. Pursuant to the study, China, India and Russia will take the helm of the world with the U.S., in addition to Iran, Turkey and Indonesia. The world system shaped after WW II will not remain firm by 2025 due to the rise of some developing entities, the global economy and shift of wealth from the West to the East.

With all these new changes, Obama will have to think carefully before engaging in another military adventure against Pakistan, because any other miscalculations means the virtual end of the American Empire. And this is the message al Qaeda sent to the American President-elect.

In a videotape aired on an Internet website on November 19th, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the second-in-command of al Qaeda, warned Obama against being drifted by Bush’s imprudent policies and the heavy presence in Afghanistan: “Withdrawing your troops from Iraq and deploying them in Afghanistan and Pakistan will get you nowhere,” Al-Zawahiri said, “just learn the lesson from the British, the Soviets, Pervez Musharraf (the Pakistani president) and finally Bush!”

These warnings depend on many things, in addition to the economic impasse. Al Qaeda now celebrates the disgraceful exit of Bush who reneged on his promise to catch Bin Laden, Al Zawahiri and Mullah Mohammed Omar (the Taliban’s leader) alive or dead. Rather, his troops are caught in the Iraqi and Afghani swamps.

To conclude, Bin Laden and Al-Zawahri fully understand that Obama’s vows to switch a large number of his forces from Iraq to Afghanistan under the current economic circumstances will not be for America’s own good, especially when its allies are escaping the Taliban’s fierce attacks. This will also not settle the battle with the Taliban; it will rather increase American losses. The more Americans’ to be deployed to Afghanistan, the more they shall be hunted.