US-Pakistan Cold War

For two months, no truck with supplies for NATO came from Pakistan to Afghanistan. This is due to the cold war between the U.S. and Pakistan, the key allies in the War in Afghanistan.

While pursuing Afghan partisans, Americans were unceremoniously trespassing through Pakistani airspace and overland borders and bombarding border villages from their unmanned airplanes.

When in November they once again, by mistake, destroyed two Pakistan border posts, killing over 20 soldiers, Islamabad closed the border with Afghanistan, ordered to stop the transports with supplies for Western forces, and demanded that Americans left the Shamsi base. It was from there that the unmanned airplanes were taking off for their missions over the borderland.

The Pakistanis rejected the U.S. apology, and their prime minister admitted that it was the increasing distrust separating the allies that really caused the misunderstandings. Washington suspects that the Pakistanis are playing a dual game and aiding the Afghan partisans in secret to form a Pakistan friendly government in Kabul after the Americans leave.

In May 2011, Americans enraged the Pakistani generals when U.S. rangers landed in Abbottabad near Islamabad and killed Osama bin Laden, who was hiding in his house near a barracks.

Pakistan accuses Americans of causing the war in Afghanistan, which spread to the Pakistani side as a wave of terrorism. According to Islamabad, Americans do not take Pakistan’s affairs into account, they give no warning about their operations, even when they are conducted on Pakistani territory, and they want to eliminate Islamabad from peace negotiations with the partisans.

That is why Islamabad states that until all that changes, the Southern route will be closed for Western transports.

Roads leading through Pakistan from Karachi to Afghanistan through Balochistan, or the Khyber Pass, are the fastest and cheapest supply routes for NATO. Until 2011, more than one-third of all non-military goods were transported through here to 150,000 Western troops stationed in Afghanistan. What is mainly transported through the Pakistani route is fuel.

Due to escalating partisan, smuggler and robber attacks, the West has been decreasing the number of transports through Pakistan and choosing to deliver supplies from the North through Uzbekistan. Today, one-third of all supplies are transported through here and one-third by plane.

The Northern route is, however, much longer and much more expensive.

Soon, the American airlift through Kyrgyzstan will start causing problems. When in Autumn the new president Almazbek Atambayev took office, he announced that in 2014 he would tell Americans to leave the leased base in Bishkek, through which U.S. troops and supplies go to Afghanistan. Atambayev declared that the U.S. presence in Bishkek does not increase the safety of Kyrgyzstan, but in fact constitutes a threat.

This view is supported by other allies of Russia: Uzbeks, Tajik people, Kazakhs, and Turkmen people, as well as China and Iran. What is more, the Kyrgyz people do not agree that the American bases should remain in Afghanistan after Western forces withdraw from there in 2014.

The Pakistani route blockade is a symbol of a crisis between Washington and Islamabad. Without Pakistan, the U.S. will not manage to win the war. Moreover, Pakistanis are able to preclude American attempts made behind their back to reach an agreement with the Taliban hiding on Pakistani territory.

Americans are furious that they have to take Islamabad’s opinion into account — they thought that the over $20 million which Pakistanis received after 2010 would be enough to keep them as an unconditional ally.

Some Pakistani military men say that the blockade might be lifted, provided that the West agrees to pay a much higher toll. Others suggest that the border will be closed until Americans start taking into consideration Pakistani affairs in Afghanistan and abandon their attempts to establish order there. For now, recent allies do not talk with each other, and Pakistan refused to receive Marc Grossman, the United States Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

*** U.S. and Taliban representatives began preliminary talks in Qatar about starting peace negotiations, stated Taliban negotiator Mullah Kamaluddin on Sunday. The first step was Taliban consent in January to open a U.S. embassy in Qatar. In return they expect their associates to be released from Guantanamo. Taliban negotiators also want Pakistan to be included in the peace talks. Up till now, the Taliban have refused to discuss anything with Hamid Karzai’s government, and stressed that they can negotiate only with Americans.