War or Peace?

The streets in Teheran were as crowded as usual for any Monday; nothing indicated increasing international tensions over Iran’s controversial nuclear program. But Iranian opinion is split over whether the latest “nuclear stalemate” points to an approaching war or not. Abul Fazal, an employee in Teheran’s Grand Bazaar, claimed it just didn’t feel as though war was approaching; but, he added, he was certain that if war did break out, Iran’s youth would defend the nation. His fellow workers all nodded in agreement.

Members of Teheran’s middle class seem less optimistic that a confrontation can be avoided.

In one of the trendy downtown Teheran cafes, Golshan, an artist in his mid-twenties, says that war would be like a horrible earthquake for Iran and added that he was terrified at the prospect. Western nations and Israel suspect Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran, on the other hand, insists that the goal of its nuclear program is strictly for the production of peaceful nuclear energy and that it has no desire to develop “un-Islamic” weaponry.

At the beginning of the month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta reportedly said there was the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran between April and June of this year as a preventative measure to what Israel sees as a serious threat to its national security. The United States has also refused to take the possibility of military action against Iran completely off the table.

Iran promised a “painful” reply to any military attack and threatened to respond to the European Union embargo on Iranian oil, scheduled to begin in July, by closing the Straits of Hormuz, an extremely important route for oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. The confidence expressed by workers in the Grand Bazaar sounds like an echo of the latest pronouncements made by Iranian Foreign Minister Akbar Salehi.

“Tehran is examining even the worst-case scenarios and preparing itself to counteract them,” Salehi said in a Friday interview on the Iranian English-language broadcaster Press TV. He added that he didn’t expect such a scenario to happen now. Iranian parliamentary spokesman Ali Larijani warned on Sunday — when tensions had reached a high point — of “consequences” for the region should Gulf states continue to “conspire” with the United States against Iran.

During the Iraq-Iran War (1980–1988), Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states supported Baghdad. Larijani emphasized that Iran wouldn’t exercise forgiveness a second time around. The war with Iraq decimated an entire generation of young Iranian men, and memories of that conflict are still remembered by the older citizens of Teheran.

One shop owner near the sprawling Laleh Park asked, “Who needs war? We already lost two million Iranians fighting Iraq. We don’t need to repeat such a thing.” The man declined to be identified. The terrifying prospect of runaway inflation can be added to the people’s fear of another war. Prices for basic foodstuffs have doubled over the past few weeks, as the United States and Europe tightened sanctions against Teheran.

Abul Fazal said it was becoming increasingly difficult for anyone to survive on a worker’s wages, and he suspected even the wealthy were beginning to feel the pinch. Golshan added that everything had gotten so expensive lately and that people were becoming angry. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, swore that Iran would never “give in” to the pressure of the embargo.

On the anniversary of the Iranian revolution of 1979, Ahmadinejad announced that Iran would soon announce “significant” progress in its nuclear program. The announcement was met with cheers from a crowd waving flags and signs proclaiming “Down with the USA” and “Down with Israel.”

Iranian media announced on Sunday that one of its most important underground nuclear facilities would go totally operational within a few days. According to media reports, Iran began enriching uranium at the beginning of January in the heavily guarded Fordo underground site near the city of Qom in northern Iran. The announcement is expected to increase tensions with Israel and the West.

One female student giving her last name as Manoucheri said, “War is a horrible thing, but it’s coming. All politicians are bad, but it’s the people who will suffer.” Businessman Ayra, on the other hand, brushed aside talk of war through the window of his white Porsche saying, “There won’t be a war, because it would be too expensive for both sides.” Then, with a shrug of his shoulders, he added, “The United States just can’t afford to attack Iran right now.” Then he hit the accelerator and sped off into Teheran’s rush hour traffic.