US and Iran’s Vacillation Between Hard and Soft Approaches: Bargaining Chips for Negotiation?

On Feb. 15, an Iranian news station reported that the Iranian government had declared that it would stop supplying oil to six member states of the EU: France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. However, soon afterward, Iran’s Oil Ministry denied the validity of the report. One might say that this specious information added more strain to an [already] tense situation. This display from Iran was quite similar to its previous attitude towards “closing the Strait of Hormuz.”

In the past few months, the state of affairs between the United States and Iran has started to take on an appearance of being at swords drawn. The U.S. and EU have continually put pressure on Iran in four respects: First, with oil sanctions, as the EU’s foreign minister announced last month that the importation of oil from Iran would be prohibited starting in July; second, by opposing Iran’s nuclear weapons program and announcing research and development for striking those weapons, as America is at this moment reworking its bunker busters, which are able to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities; third, by opposing and warning Iran against closing the Strait of Hormuz, as America has made “closing the Strait of Hormuz” a “red line” for Iran; and fourth, with pressure from Israel, as the U.S. secretary of defense previously announced that at the very earliest, Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear installations in April or May. [Despite] President Obama’s later claims that Israel would not attack, the possibility of an attack remains unchanged.

At the same time, another side to the situation has emerged. All parties are now pushing for and [trying to] facilitate nuclear discussions with Iran. There is still the possibility that Iran and six countries — China, the U.S., Russia, the UK, France and Germany — will sit down and hold talks. That is to say, the tense situation is loosening up a little.

Under these circumstances, all sides are measuring their strength against one another; nobody is willing to be outdone. Although in the comparison between the West and Iran the latter falls on the relatively weaker side, Iran also has its methods. If the situation becomes more serious, it will considerably affect and harm everyone. Iran and the West sometimes take a hard line, and both are constantly making empty statements. For example, America’s behavior on the question of whether or not Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities is also like this. Both sides’ [vacillation] between taking a hard line and a softer approach may be to acquire bargaining chips for negotiation.

Yang Chengxu is the former Chinese Ambassador to Austria and former Deputy Director-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Department of West European Affairs.