Romney and Santorum Even Their Chances

The primaries in Michigan and Arizona can decide if the run for the Republican nomination will last until the party’s convention, which would decrease the GOP’s chance to beat Barack Obama who is running for a second term as president of the United States.

In Michigan, it is the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, who is considered as the establishment’s and GOP strategists’ favorite, but according to the Associated Press (AP), one day before the primaries, the chances of both leading candidates — Romney and the former Sen. Rick Santorum — are actually even. Tuesday’s primaries can decide if the former governor will strengthen his position as a leader or if the run within the GOP is decided no earlier than the party’s convention, at the end of August in Tampa, Fla.

Test for Santorum

Voting in Arizona, which is a border state in the south of the country and where the issue of illegal immigration determines voter preferences, is most likely to be won by Romney, as he consistently supports Arizona Republicans’ anti-immigrant view. Voting in Michigan, on which Santorum focused, “will test former Pennsylvania senator Santorum’s far-right message on social issues,” writes the AP.

According to right-wing commentators, it was a mistake to put these accents in his campaign, as it is necessary to focus on the economy. Santorum criticizes prenatal examinations and contraceptives calling them an invitation to a loose sexual lifestyle. He also condemns homosexuality. Lately, he attacked public education, claiming it was the state’s interference in private life.

“Obama? What a snob!”

One day before voting in Michigan, the former senator continued to strive for the votes of those far-right voters. He also attacked Obama, among others, for his policy providing access to higher education to all Americans. Santorum told NBC: “President Obama once said he wants everybody in America to go to college. What a snob!”

Is Romney hurting himself?

In Michigan, we’ll see how much Romney hurt himself by criticizing Obama’s decision to provide governmental aid to the giants of the American motor industry: General Motors and Chrysler Corporation.

The aid proved to be successful, as AP says, and both companies, after controlled bankruptcy and deep restructuring, got back to excellent condition. Rescuing them saved millions of people from losing their jobs, not only in the car industry, but also within the entire supply chain.

By criticizing the aid for Chrysler and GM, Romney made it more difficult to compete in Michigan, being the center of the U.S. car industry. There are the headquarters and factories of both mentioned companies, as well as Ford.

Michigan was affected by the recession very badly, says Reuters. The ongoing fight of Republicans for the party’s nomination has significantly improved the current president’s ratings. All potential GOP candidates are getting much worse ratings in the polls than Obama. According to the AP, the president has it better thanks to some signals of the economy’s growth, as it can actually be on its way to complete recovery after the 2007-09 crisis.

Severe defeat

According to observers, Romney’s defeat in Michigan would be especially severe, as he was raised there and his father was the governor in the 1960s. If the former senator won in both states, it would give him a perfect start in so-called “super Tuesday,” when 10 states have primaries on March 6. It is said that if Romney fails to win in Arizona and Michigan, the run for nomination will last until the very end of primary season, until June, as none of the candidates would have the required minimum number of 1,140 delegates at the party’s convention.

Then it will be the convention in Tampa that decides the nomination. However, as Romney — thanks to the Republican establishment’s support — has more financial resources for the campaign than Santorum and the other candidate, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, his chances for getting back on top seem significant.