The Lesser Evil

The primaries damaged Mitt Romney and divided the Republicans. But now they will unite behind their candidate and the election will be close.

Faith and persistence can sometimes move mountains, but in the long run they can’t overturn the laws of gravity and mathematics. Hillary Clinton discovered that in 2008. It’s true that she was able to keep hopes for her election alive into June although mathematically she had already lost to Barack Obama in March.

In 2012, the Republicans are in the same position; Mitt Romney can’t be denied the nomination.

His party opponent, Rick Santorum, refuses to admit that, however, and wants to stay in the race in the hope that some unforeseen event might still move that particular mountain. If that doesn’t happen, he views the 2012 campaign as a practice run for 2016 with the expectation that Romney will lose to Obama this November.

Are Romney’s chances really that poor? America is experiencing a paradoxical election year. Little of the usual optimism is apparent. The people are disappointed and angry, especially with the president. If that were the only consideration, Obama wouldn’t have much chance of being reelected. Sixty percent of Americans think their country is on the wrong track.

But regime change will only come about if a majority of voters see that there is a more trustworthy alternative. If there is not, they’ll vote for the incumbent as the lesser evil. Obama currently leads Romney by 47.6 to 43.6 percentage points. He looks vulnerable, but Romney doesn’t generate much enthusiasm.

The dynamics will change as soon as there’s an official nominee. The Republican image was overshadowed by the bitter primary election cycle, but sooner or later, the party will coalesce behind Romney. The question of whether Romney is the best candidate is less important to Republicans than denying Obama a second term.

Democrats in 2008 also feared that the long, difficult primary campaign between Clinton and Obama would reduce their chances in the general election. It turned out differently. Obama became a better candidate and learned how to ward off political attacks.

The Republicans will find that transition much more difficult. First of all, they engaged in mudslinging and behaved less than honorably toward their opponents. Secondly, they were driven further and further to the right in an attempt to woo their conservative base. The general election will be decided by moderates. How can Romney modify his right wing primary positions to appeal to the moderates? Republicans have, for example, challenged not only abortion rights but contraception as well, positions that have resulted in many women defecting to the Democratic side.

Romney certainly poses a greater threat to Obama than Rick Santorum does, if for no other reason than in comparison he seems to be a moderate pragmatic. The race will be close and there is no favorite right now, but Romney has to find some way to change the election dynamic. Otherwise, Obama stays in the White House.