It’s a Go!

That’s it; the presidential race has begun in the United States.

The outbreak of hostilities occurred two days ago. It’s a sign that never fails: for the first time, President Barack Obama has attacked Mitt Romney by name not only in a speech, but also through TV commercials, which is something he had previously declined to do.

And he has good cause: The Republican front runner has been too vague. Despite being a favorite, the former Massachusetts governor has been slow to distinguish himself from his rivals who, although they are weaker and less fortunate, have given him a headache for the past few months.

But by completing a hat trick in Tuesday’s primary, including the hotly contested Wisconsin race, Mr. Romney can now behave as if the Republican nomination is already in his pocket.

His main opponent, the ultraconservative Rick Santorum, will be happy to finish in close second, with a potential win in his home state of Pennsylvania as a consolation prize at the end of April.* As for Newt Gingrich, who saw his primary fundraiser turn off the water, his campaign is sinking since its collapse on “Super Tuesday.”

Another indication that the presidential duel is in full swing since his triple victory on Tuesday can be seen in how Mitt Romney ignores his Republican opponents and focuses his attention on President Obama.

Thus, after Senator John McCain in 2008, it became the turn of multimillionaire Romney to compete against Barack Obama for the conquest of the White House. Most polls predict that the Democratic president will win re-election. At first glance, Mr. Romney faces an uphill battle. The U.S. economy, although weak, has taken the bull by the horns, with the unemployment rate falling under 9 percent. This is encouraging news that favors the reelection of the incumbent.

However, the electorate remains volatile. They are as unpredictable as the weather and change sides as frequently as the media changes its views regarding the situation of the American people. An example of this is that when gasoline prices recently soared in the U.S., President Obama’s popularity fell a few points soon thereafter.

In addition, the Supreme Court’s much-anticipated decision in June regarding the constitutionality of the law on health insurance will have a significant impact on the presidential campaign. During the three days of hearings, the mainly conservative judges gave the impression of wanting to invalidate the heart of the legislation (which forces all Americans to purchase health insurance), if not all of the law, which would pose a major setback to the Obama administration. Mr. Romney has sometimes distanced himself against his will in his speech to woo central Tea Party activists, a fraction of whom have had their influence soar among Republicans in the past few years. Although Mr. Romney sees their type, more radical elements will prevail. After all, supporters of the Grand Old Party have a visceral goal in common: run Barack Obama out of the White House.

On the contrary, the shift to the right of Mr. Romney could be a double-edged sword and cost him precious votes this fall among independents, whose support is essential to winning the presidency. Besides, he is snubbed by a high proportion of women voters, more allergic to the conservative discourse.

One thing’s for sure: this presidential campaign will be subject to several surprises.

*Editor’s Note: Rick Santorum dropped out of the race on April 10, 2012.