Humanitarian Aid Is Possible

Even if Obama’s “red line” is crossed, no one wants to risk a military deployment to Syria. However, nothing is being done to stop it — to great public disapproval.

President Barack Obama is rarely as angry with himself as he must be right now, as he is constantly reminded of his speech about the “red line.” A year ago, he announced that if Syria were to deploy chemical weapons, they would cross a “red line.” All children learn from an early age not to threaten consequences they do not actually want to enforce later.

The U.S. government is pushing for an attack on Syria and the U.N. inspectors want to gain immediate access to the areas that they suspect have suffered poison gas attacks. However, the more effort they put into making this happen, the more likely it appears that it won’t.

This is because so much appears to have been decided already. Apart from a small group of delegates and senators, no one in the U.S. wants a military intervention in Syria, least of all the military. General Dempsey recently made a series of statements to Congress in which he declared that he considers the chances of success for the military to be very small and the risk of becoming involved in a long lasting war to be very high.

Even after the first reports of the poison gas attacks emerged, the U.S. had not yet started arming the rebels. The U.S. does not trust many factions of the failing opposition, especially not the Islamists closely linked to al-Qaida. The U.S. already armed such people in Afghanistan in the ‘80s and that did not end well.

The military overthrow of the Assad regime is possible but it comes at a high price; such a serious measure would certainly not bring peace to Syria. The foreign nation that wants to take up this cause from the outside must be prepared to act as a stabilizing power for a long period. The U.S. is not ready for such an undertaking.

Obama Has Reached a Dead End

It is most unfortunate that Obama has pushed himself into a corner with his talk of a “red line.” Getting himself out of this situation will come with heavy consequences: He will be publicly portrayed as a toothless tiger.

It is even more frustrating because in the debate about international engagement in Syria, he based his argument completely on military intervention. No one wants this and so no one will do anything to help. The Syrian people will pay the price for this. However, something must be done. Extensive measures are required immediately (both in the U.S. and Europe) to protect the civilian population and open the barriers to allow protection and care for the refugees.