Russia’s proposal for the removal of chemical weapons from Syria is both a tactical victory and a strategic defeat for Russia, Syria and its allies and — most importantly — Iran. A main tactical objective for Russia has been achieved: It is possible that the U.S. will not attack Syria. Perhaps attacking Syria was not America’s main aim.
The USA and Israel have achieved their main objective: the removal of any Syrian threat to Israel. All the aggression against Syria, all plans to overthrow President Assad were created with that one aim in mind.
Once Syrian chemical weapons are placed under international control, Israel will have a free hand — to subsequently attack Syria or to act aggressively toward Iran. The main threat toward Israel in the region will have been eliminated without cost and at the hands of the Russians and Syrians themselves, who are setting up this situation “freely, and even with a song.”
So, what the Russian press has called a great diplomatic victory is in fact a strategic and geopolitical defeat for Russia, Syria and Iran.
Iran has always stood for disarmament in the region — but for complete disarmament, referring mostly to the disarmament of Israel. Iran has never demanded Israel’s unilateral disarmament. Now that Syria is unilaterally disarming itself of its own free will, Iran will face a one-on-one situation with Israel.
The underdog in this conflict will be Iran, and the victor will be Israel, which hasn’t even fired a single shot. Now, it is possible that the air bombing of military targets by an unknown country will begin again in Syria, but this time Syria will not have its strategic resources and its last resort: chemical weapons.
This is what official representative of the USA, White House press secretary Jay Carney, has stated on the matter of the diplomatic and strategic defeat of Russia and Syria:
“The Russian proposal to establish international control over Syrian chemical weapons has come about as a result of the U.S.’ threat to engage in military action against Syria. — It is clear that the U.S. threat of military action has led to this diplomatic breakthrough. Only three days ago, Syria would not even confess to owning chemical weapons. In the last two days, we have seen more cooperation and useful action from Russia than in the last two years,”* said Carney.
Aside from this, he added that “Russia has put its prestige on the line”* and that “this whole process will test the seriousness of all participants.”
Americans believe that they have achieved a resounding victory without firing a single shot, spending a single dollar or subjecting a single citizen to death or injury. What has happened is perhaps the final victory of the U.S. and Israel in the Cold War against Russia and Syria.
Instead of waiting quietly for the U.S. Congress’ decision and an attack on Syria to put America and its few allies into a state of war with Syria, Russia — having formed a powerful naval group in the Mediterranean sea — has wasted all the efforts of its sailors, who are now on the shore of Syria without a purpose, in the absence of any real threat of an attack on Syria.
Russia has trembled at the last moment and given up both her authority and the most valuable strategic resource of her only ally in the Middle East: Syria.
Next in the line of strategic defeats for Russia is Iran, to whom Russia has once again refused to supply the defense system C-300. This is bound to end with Iranian engineers’ creating a similar system, work on which is already underway.
And then Iran will cease to depend on Russia on this crucial issue.
Why has Russia, finding itself in a winning military situation, begun to put up with diplomatic and strategic defeats? This question should not be posed to the soldiers and sailors who are carrying out their work honestly, but to the highest political authorities of Russia.
After Syria’s disarmament, it will be Iran’s turn to disarm and then will come Russia’s turn.
* Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.
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