Welcome, or No Trespassing

Illegal immigration is a major headache for the United States. Officially, there are 11 million people in the country illegally, but many experts believe that the real figure could be twice or thrice as large. Their illegal immigrant problem is as bad as in Russia, but while our illegal immigrants are predominantly former residents of Central Asian republics, in the U.S. illegal immigrants primarily come from across the Mexican border. Therefore, the average illegal immigrant in the U.S. is not an Asian Muslim, but a Hispanic Roman Catholic. The Spanish language in the U.S. is second only to English, and it’s slowly closing the gap. The U.S. is gradually “Hispanicizing,” and this process is part of the global trend of the strongest demographic pressure by the poor South on the rich North, where fertility rates are falling year by year.

In the old Hollywood movies, all waitresses in roadside cafes were white. In the new movies, they’re all somewhat dark, with Latin American or Asian features. It would seem trivial: Who cares about the server, as long as the coffee is strong and the burger is tasty. In reality, it’s a serious economic problem. American workers’ wages are falling, and not only because of the financial crisis, but also because of the influx of immigrants who are willing to do the same job for much less money.

Immigration reform opponents (primarily Republicans) argue, “American citizens are losing jobs and income due to illegal immigrants.” “Not true,” respond their Democratic opponents, while backing up their words with numbers. Illegal immigrants’ income in the U.S. is estimated at $350 billion, and a significant portion of that money goes toward purchases, thereby stimulating retail trade in the country. Prior to the economic crisis, the GDP produced by immigrants (including legal) was estimated at $1.6 trillion, which was more than the total Russian GDP at that time. And legalizing those who hide in this shadowy economic sector would make tax revenues gush like a river into the Treasury. “Uh, no,” object the Republicans, “The burden on social assistance programs would outweigh the profits derived from legalization.” This burden is already high. More than half of illegal immigrants use social assistance programs. But the burden is unlikely to disappear after legalization. Instead, it’s likely to increase, because it’s more beneficial for former illegal immigrants to get paid in cash, and thus continue to receive social assistance. And the increased flow of immigrant workers may become an excessive load for U.S. social programs.

But President Obama has promised a reform, and with these promises received votes from Hispanic voters in the 2012 election (70% of Spanish-speaking Catholics supported Obama, while only 27% supported Republican Romney). And now Obama is making every effort to turn his promises into reality.

The protracted confrontation with the Republicans on health insurance reform (Obamacare) has cast a shadow on the immigration reform bill. This bill was introduced in April by the Gang of Eight, a group that includes four Democratic and four Republican senators. The plan provided for the legalization and gradual naturalization (over a 13-year period) of all illegal immigrants already in the U.S. In order to become full-fledged American citizens, former illegal immigrants would have to pay fines, not commit crimes, learn English and pay taxes. Since representatives from both parties developed the bill, it contains measures designed to encourage immigration, as well as measures that protect the U.S. from being invaded by unwelcome guests. For example, it includes substantial financial allocations to strengthen the Mexican border. The U.S.-Mexico border is supposedly closed. High walls have been erected, and dozens of feet of the surrounding area are crammed with electronics. But in reality, the walls are not everywhere. A considerable portion of the border has a low fence, climbing over which is not that difficult. And it’s easy to find “holes” (places without any fence at all) with Google Maps.

There is a plan to allocate funds from the multi-million dollar budget to plugging holes, increasing border patrol, and buying drones and radar stations. The bill had seemingly met the interests of the Democrats and the Republicans, and should have become a law without any major problems. But not so fast! The bill got stuck in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the Republicans. Congressmen have proposed to either consider it in parts (and the bill has nearly 1,300 pages!), or develop their own version. In either case, the bill will not be passed before the end of 2013. And there are Congressional elections in 2014, which raise the stakes of taking a stance on such a controversial and painful issue. It would be in the congressmen’s best interest to postpone this discussion for another year. Thus, the bill’s fate is hanging by a thread. And if the thread breaks, Obama risks going down in history as a presidential failure worse than Carter.

In this situation, Obama has chosen to look for alternate routes. Instead of putting pressure on Congress directly, he’s acting through intermediaries. A few days ago, he met with a group of religious leaders from different U.S. denominations: Catholics, Evangelicals, Baptists, [members of the] Korean Protestant community, Presbyterians, etc. All of the leaders who were invited to the White House are among the long-standing supporters of immigration reform, so that the purpose of the meeting, which was quite succinctly reported in the media, was most likely to mobilize a “support group.” The same purpose was served by the president’s meeting with big businessmen, who are also interested in seeing the immigration bill pass, and lobbying for it in the House of Representatives.

However, this strategy did not help either. Perhaps it was simply too late. Immediately after Obama’s meeting with religious leaders, House Speaker John Boehner — a sworn enemy of Obamacare — said that the Republican Party does not plan to discuss the reform before the end of this year. Boehner added sarcastically, “The idea that we’re going to take up a 1,300-page bill that no one had ever read … is not going to happen.”

However, the Republican position is also understandable. If the illegal immigrants in the U.S. get amnesty, the Republicans’ opponents will get a whole army of potential voters, because the immigrants have always sympathized with the Democrats’ social policies. And after the recent failed attempt to stop the health care reform’s implementation, Republicans are eager to get revenge. It’s very likely that immigration reform will simply drown in the endless debates and discussions of individual sections.

Of course, this will be a colossal failure for Obama. And for the United States? Recall the forecasts of the famous conservative stronghold, the Heritage Foundation, which claims that 19 million people may legally immigrate to the U.S. in the next 20 years within the framework of the existing legislation. If the immigration reform is successful, that number may be about 100 million. Of course, just because they can does not necessarily mean that they will immigrate. But considering the growing demographic pressure from the poor countries of developing world, this scenario does not seem unrealistic.

Immigration law reform is long overdue. And there is no doubt that it will happen sooner or later. But perhaps it would be better for America if that happens under the next president, who will almost certainly be a Republican.