China, Japan, US: Threat of War!

It’s scary what is happening right now in the East China Sea because of a few silly pieces of rock: Under its own authority, China is expanding its air defense zone. Japan’s government is answering with nationalistic slogans and prompting its carriers to ignore China’s air defense zone. The U.S. is answering with B-52 bombers in the region.

What only a short time ago could still be shrugged off as absurd muscle flexing is now becoming a real threat of war. Shortly before U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrived yesterday for talks, China renewed its threat to drive American or Japanese fighter pilots out the zone by force of its military.

But the U.S. is also playing a risky game. The U.S. is fighting on the side of the Japanese government, which is not doing much to diffuse the conflict. This is not what an intervention should look like.

If the dispute were only about the islands, it would be easy to solve. They are uninhabitable and the estimated resources could be divided up fairly. But all indicators are that the island conflict is only a pretext. For the participants, it’s about East Asian supremacy.

The international community might soon notice how unsettling the situation is. All parties should be at the negotiating table, but as long as doesn’t happen, the threat of war will continue growing. If a single shot rings out, the East Asian powder keg could explode — with devastating consequences for the whole world.