Do Not Expect Much from Obama Anymore

Tonight, Barack Obama will deliver his traditional speech about the state of the country. The expectations are particularly modest. Hardly a year after his second inauguration, the American president is weighed down as he crawls toward the exit.

It is significant that, this year, the State of the Union, the traditional speech that allows the president to explain the state of his country, as well as his plans for the upcoming year, has been mentioned very little. This disinterest is without a doubt less related to the state of the United States as to the state of Barack Obama’s presidency.

More and more often, Obama is considered to be a lame duck. He no longer amounts to anything. Congress, where Republicans hold enough votes to prevent just about everything, does not cooperate. It seems that the midterm elections next fall will not change many things.

As of the end of these elections, Washington’s attention will focus on the 2016 presidential campaign anyways – read, Hillary Clinton against God knows whom – and the re-election campaigns of individual members of Congress. There, Obama will not count for anything.

Therefore, Obama could also announce to the two re-united houses that he will calmly end his mandate, without making a fuss.

Evidently, he will say otherwise. Everything suggests that Obama will take his time to talk about the economic inequality that was recently labeled the greatest challenge of our time. In the meantime, you know the story: The most growth is found in the pockets of the richest percentage of society. All others find themselves out of work. Speak to the 1.5 million Americans, for example, who have lost their unemployment benefits since the New Year because the Congress did not extend them. It is one of the measures that Obama has not succeeded in passing in Congress. Republicans did not want to hear anything, the benefits ceased, and a large number of people found themselves impoverished.

Tonight, Obama will therefore announce that he wants to change this situation, but what can he do? Not much. Think back to last year’s State of the Union. A few weeks after the bloody shooting at a school in Newtown, Connecticut, gun control was the main issue. As there was a large public consensus, it was expected everywhere that Washington would be obliged to follow up on this. There would be stricter laws.

There were not any. And, for the most part, it is not even because of Obama. The American political system is full of traps and veto points that allow the opposing party to block all proposals. Consequently, recent years have seen the same situation: Republicans said no, and therefore, it meant no.

Remember also that Obama called for an increase in the minimum wage. Regarding that as well, nothing happened. Without a doubt, the president will again talk about this tonight.

Furthermore, the White House has made it clear that Obama will use the weapon of “executive action,” meaning he will use the full power of his presidential competencies to do all that he can without Congress.

Simply, for a large number of his priorities – minimum wage, teaching programs and employment – he needs the approval of Congress, which, at a time of elections, is at a high risk of failing him.

Until further notice, Obama is hopelessly stuck, and unless there are unexpected developments, the risk that this situation will continue until 2016 increases every day.