Is the United States Finished with Turkey?

With the political and social chaos continuing in Turkey, the American administration has begun to take steps to significantly decrease both Turkey’s activities and role in the region.

At first glance, America’s political stance toward Turkey doesn’t seem to be changing. However, when looking at regional events seemingly unrelated to American interests, we can glean an evolving attitude by the U.S. toward Turkey. The United States is slowly working on possible alternatives to Turkey’s presence in the region.

As a result of climate change, the importance of water resources has started to increase. Israel just so happens to be the world leader in technology used to produce fresh water from salt water. Despite America’s efforts, Turkey has rejected the road to a normalization of relations with Israel.

America and Israel, recognizing the opportunity this situation presents, have begun to play the Iran card. With the more liberal rhetoric displayed by Iran recently, and as hopes for Egypt and Turkey have diminished, Iran seems to be the future model for a moderate Islamic country. It’s not clear if this will be successful but it’s obvious that America is involved in such an endeavor. From a Turkish perspective, it’s important to realize the existence of such an effort by the United States.

It is in this exact context, Israel is beginning to prepare a joint project with Iran to convert salt water to drinkable fresh water in Iran.

According to experts, in the coming years water resources are going to increase substantially in importance in the Middle East. This joint project by the United States and Israel to provide Iran with water can be seen as a sign of the changing political climate in the region.

While Iran is starting joint projects with Israel, beginning to improve its relationship with America and projecting itself more moderately toward the world, Turkey remains committed to maintaining its increasingly radical and uncompromising position.

Meanwhile, the United States for some time has been involved in increasing the role of its embassy in Yerevan. The size of an embassy and the variety of functions it carries out are an indicator of the importance given to the nation where it’s located.

An informed source told me that America is planning to use Yerevan as the regional intelligence hub. This makes me assume that the U.S. and Israel have started to lose faith in Turkey, with whom they have previously partnered on every form of intelligence, and now have begun to search for other alternatives.

It appears that as a result of its souring relationship [with Turkey] — especially after Prime Minister Erdogan’s trip to America — the United States has begun operations aimed at Turkey.

America never relies on a single plan, preferring instead to have a Plan B and C as well. Even if its relationship with Turkey has soured, it’s still possible that it can be fixed and a period of rational behavior will follow.

The most hopeful indicator, which didn’t get a lot of play in the Turkish press, was a very important announcement coming from South Cyprus. The president of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades, said that an agreement ending the 40-year partition of the island could have positive effects for Turkey’s relationship with Israel.

Anastasiades said that in such an agreement Turkey could play a part in supplying natural gas to other nations in the region, adding that the construction of a pipeline directly through Turkey would be a much cheaper alternative.

I have written many times that one of the biggest natural gas reserves has been found on the floor of the Eastern Mediterranean. This basin, named Leviathan, has been coveted by all the big powers — especially Israel. America and Israel are taking steps to get control of it. Cyprus got in on the act after Turkey’s relationship with Israel soured.

Now Cyprus has made a statement that seems to be inviting Turkey back into the fold. It’s clear this message came at the behest of America. What we should understand from this is that America seems to be hoping Turkey will give up its ideological squabbles and start working toward its economic and political benefit. As a result of this optimistic thinking, America is working to set up a partnership with Turkey and Israel to control the natural gas reserves.

In fact, when it comes to water, Turkey is in need of such a partnership. However, Iran beat Turkey to the punch on this issue. If we miss our chance with natural gas, someone will definitely take our place.

In my opinion, Turkey should think about its self-interest and take this chance to normalize relations with Israel.