Taiwanese Media: Taiwan Is Similar to Ukraine, and US Will Not Declare War on Taiwan with China

According to the critique published in Taiwan’s Wang Bao [journal] on March 10 titled “What Taiwan Can Learn From the Ukrainian Crisis,” the problem in Ukraine has led to the most severe crisis between the United States and Russia since the Cold War. The pro-Russian Crimean parliament decided on a referendum to be held on March 16 to vote on whether to join Russia or not, which might trigger a domino effect in Ukraine and other areas. Russia’s targeted military drill and test of intercontinental missiles have a foreboding overtone. America’s sending of battleships to the Black Sea and the enhancement of military arrangements in Lithuania and Poland also show intentions to deter [Putin].

The U.S. and Europe firmly believe that Russia infringes upon Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. has claimed to have stopped trade negotiations and military exchanges with Russia, and it decided not to send a special team to attend the Olympic Games in Sochi. What’s more, Obama ordered a political command to freeze the assets of Russian officials in America, as well as other individuals and organizations, and to restrict their access to the American border. The European Union is relatively conservative on this matter, as Germany, France, and other major powers have no intention of confronting Russia directly and are opposed to the proposal of excluding Russia from the G-8 summit.

Riddled with financial problems, not only might America’s attempt at trade sanctions and military deterrence not work on Russia, it could also emphasize Obama’s diplomatic incapability. Chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs [Ed] Royce thinks that Putin has already sensed that Obama is not determined to impede Russia. Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates seems doubtful of Obama’s ability to handle crises as well, saying that the U.S. has not learned the lesson from the military conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008. In view of the U.S. needing to cooperate with Russia to deal with the situation in Afghanistan, Syria and Iran, the U.S. would be isolated if the Ukrainian crisis were improperly handled.

It is not likely that the U.S. and Russia will engage in military confrontation over Ukraine. As long as the hostility between these two [countries] remains, there will be no winner. As tensions in Ukraine are escalating, Putin has emailed Chinese leaders for support and finally received an official reply from Beijing’s highest decision makers. Chinese leaders firmly believe that Russia will coordinate with other parties and solve this problem politically. However, they also claim that the development of the Ukrainian crisis has its inevitability, even though it is quite accidental, which is an implication of America and Europe’s agitation of Ukrainian opposition forces to break off the previously reached agreement with President Yanukovych at the end of February and an indirect accusation of [their] treachery. The statement by Chinese leaders indicates that China wants to stay neutral: They do not want to offend Russia, nor the West. China and the U.S. are building a new superpower relationship, and China’s highest leaders will also visit Europe in April.

The Russian-U.S. confrontation is bound to affect America’s strategic arrangement in Asia-Pacific. The U.S. defense budget is already deficient, and further reinforcement of military arrangements in Eastern Europe will distract U.S. attention from its strategy of restabilizing in the Asia-Pacific region. After 9/11, the U.S. has been dedicated to countering terrorism internationally and has thus relaxed its strategic encirclement of China. If the situation in Ukraine is to steadily worsen, China will seize another strategic opportunity for development made possible by the new Cold War between Russia and America.

Taiwan and Ukraine are in the same position: [They are] victims of the struggles between big powers. It seems that the direct cause of the Ukrainian crisis lies in the Yanukovych administration’s termination of the Joint Activity Agreement last November. The real reason, however, is the conflict between the pro-Europe and the pro-Russian factions inside Ukraine. Ukraine is praised as the barn of Europe and is developed in terms of industry, technology, the social sciences and education. But from a geopolitical point of view, its future lies in Russia’s attitudes [toward it]. The current temporary government is faced with pressure from the Russian military forces. Even though [Ukraine] keeps expressing its determination to defend its sovereignty, it does not possess the capability, except to seek help from the U.S. and hope that Putin will not intervene militarily.

Taiwan’s territory is only 1/16th as large as Ukraine’s and is not as naturally endowed. What is worse, its internal situation is largely contained by the pro-U.S. and anti-China side. Closely resembling Ukraine, Taiwan is reliant on protection from big powers, which runs in the opposite direction of the general political trend in real life. Back in August 2008, when Russia and Georgia had military confrontations, the former President George W. Bush sent battleships to the Black Sea to deter the Russian army, but failed to do anything about it.

The famous American scholar John Mearsheimer points out in his recent essay, “Say Goodbye to Taiwan,” that the rise of China will lead to its sharing America’s leadership in Asia-Pacific, and that time is not on Taiwan’s side. In other words, although the U.S. expects China and Taiwan to be able to maintain the status quo of “seeking peace instead of reunification, being separate but not separatist,”* it has no obligation to assist Taiwan, let alone declare war with China [on its behalf].

Russia is rising again, and its core interest is in maintaining peace in its neighboring strategic buffering zones. Naturally, it will prevent Ukraine from allying with the West at all costs. Similarly, since reunification has been seen as the core interest of China, Beijing will also prevent Taiwan from becoming an independent sovereign state at all costs. Professor Mearsheimer’s attitude reflects the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan.

Because Crimea is geographically strategic and has been closely related to Russia historically, its joining the Russian Federation after the referendum seems inevitable. Following the logic of historical evolution and strategic interests, Russia will not sit with arms folded as Ukraine grows pro-West, and the U.S. will not start a war with Russia casually. Eventually, they will go back to the negotiating table to search for compromise.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.