Unfortunately, He Will Win

Clinton can no longer surprise us but Trump, on the other hand, remains fascinating. That’s why – barring any further miracles – he’ll be America’s next president.

Sometimes I hate the conclusions I reach. For example, when it comes to electing the next U.S. president, I’m convinced Donald Trump will be the winner. Barring a miracle, he’ll be the White House’s next occupant.

So there it is: The first time I’ve ever said that in print. And it doesn’t come easily. I tried everything under the sun to avoid making that admission. The first time I said it aloud – around the beginning of May after I returned from several weeks traveling across the U.S. – I took several minutes mentally editing the words to correctly express my thoughts. As if the horror would be any less if they remained unspoken.

This, as everyone knows, doesn’t work at all. Nothing gets better if you just ignore it. So, to repeat: I think America’s next president will be named Donald Trump. And not because Americans are all stupid or anything like that, but because several political facts point in that direction. Not the least of them is the fact that Republicans as well as Democrats have been busy for months amassing the revelations they intend to use against him in the general election. But those tactics would be more effective against someone like Hillary Clinton who has spent years building majorities and thus is likely to have made promises or used words that offended more dyed-in-the-wool liberals.

No Political Scandals

A real estate mogul is above suspicion on those grounds. Sure, it’s possible Trump has been involved in some shady dealings, but in order to be useful as a political weapon those first have to be proven. That may prove difficult since, if that were actually the case, the justice establishment would probably be all over them by now, the presidential election notwithstanding. And maybe he hasn’t even done anything wrong.

Politically, the hunt for scandals in Trump’s past is likely to bear little fruit. What dirt do you expect to get on a guy who proudly says things when he’s stone cold sober that nobody else would say even if they were dead drunk? And roughly half the voters still think he would make a great president?

Add to that the fact that Hillary can’t spring any surprises on us. Everyone already knows every facet of her personality, and her worldview hasn’t changed much. How can she attract new voters? Even her most ardent fans are no longer curious about her. And then there’s a large faction of liberals who will clench their teeth and vote for her – tick the box in front of her name – but will stop short of trying to convince other undecided people to do likewise. They are far more likely to find it too painful to admit that they are voting for a member of “the establishment.”

That’s where Trump can make the most of his talents: contempt for politics and established politicians. But in that regard things aren’t any better here in Europe.

No, I just don’t see how Hillary Clinton can prevail using traditional campaign methods against the fascination of a man who has a slick and easy answer for every complex problem. But maybe I have it wrong. In fact I hope I do have it wrong: Bernd Pickert, veteran editor in charge of our U.S. desk, is betting against my prediction in our office pool.

I’ve never wanted to lose a bet as much as this one.