The World According to Trump

The arrival of a new tenant in the White House always entails expectations and uncertainty. It is normal that the vicissitudes of a presidential campaign lead a candidate to promise things or air opinions that later he must tone down — or even deny — being victorious. But in the case of Donald Trump and his ascension to the most powerful office on the planet, the surprise factor reaches dizzying heights, and this is particularly true in the area where an American president exercises the most discretion: foreign policy.

Two elements determine how Trump sees the world: nationalism and isolationism. His promise “to make American again” goes beyond the legitimate aspiration of bringing better times to the American nation. It also includes the thesis that the supposed American decline — that he promises to reverse — has been the result of the gains of other countries. For Trump, international relations are a zero-sum game.

In the economic camp, this combination of nationalism and isolationism translates into a protectionist agenda that, if implemented, would quickly lead to trade wars, or even worse. The Trans-Pacific Partnership has already proven to be the first victim of this new protectionist atmosphere.

But it is the attitude that Trump has toward China that generates the most nervousness. The campaign of the next American president promoted imposing a 45 percent tariff on imports from that country, which without doubt will provoke retaliation on the part of Beijing. The peaceful rise of China as a world power depends largely on the benefits it derives from a liberal world based on exchange.

In a scenario where the trade between the U.S. and China collapses as a result of growing protectionist barriers — and where both countries don’t see each other as principal trading partners — dangerously increases the risk of a military encounter. The possible centers of friction are already on the board and range from the China expansionism in the South China Sea to the disputed Senkaku Islands with Japan — with which the U.S. has a defense pact.

Trump’s policy toward the Middle East is more mysterious. As a candidate, he was critical of the worthless American interventions in that part of the world. But he also promised to “remove the filth” from the Islamic State. It is possible that this apparent contradiction resolves in an understanding with Russia that allows Bashar Assad to remain in power in Syria and emphasizes any military action in the destruction of the caliphate. The days in which Washington was looking to promote democracy in the Arab world have finally come to an end.

Squaring the circle in the Middle East is Iran. Trump’s noninterventionism and empathy with Vladimir Putin clashes head-on with his promise to undo the nuclear agreement with the regime in Tehran. This would free that country from any commitment to stop a scientific program whose ultimate goal is to develop an atomic bomb. The alternative to the agreement is, of course, a military strike against Iran that would easy degenerate into major military conflict in the Middle East, and beyond.

In Latin America, the prospects are not flattering, even though the references to the region beyond Mexico were almost nil.The predominance in Trump’s rhetoric of the construction of a wall on the southern border, the renegotiation of NAFTA, and the imposition of duties on Mexican imports makes it very difficult for the new president to completely disown them. The uncertainty of the action that will be undertaken against Mexico has already caused the economy of that country to suffer. Worse still, Trump would end up strengthening the electoral fortunes of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a populist of the left, who would be very comfortable having a figure to antagonize in the White House.

The future of the relationship with Cuba will also be in the balance. Trump promised to reverse the policy of rapprochement promoted by the Obama administration. Nevertheless, he didn’t specify if this will involve returning to the status quo that existed before or simply freezing what has been done until recently. The truth is that re-instating the economic sanctions will have a significant cost for the American businesses that have invested in Cuba following the policy of normalization.

The year 2017 will be without a doubt a risky year with the arrival of Trump to power. One can only hope that the worst predictions will not materialize.