On the Edge of War

Political scientist Igor Pshenichnikov on why Washington needs a victory in the fight against Maduro.

The U.S. plan to carry out an armed invasion of Venezuela in order to remove the legal president, Nicolas Maduro, is becoming increasingly clear among their Latin American and European allies. In this respect, a most interesting pattern is emerging: As the Americans escalate the prewar hysteria, U.S. allies are publicly announcing en masse that they are against any armed intervention in Venezuela. They are completely obstructing U.S. interventionist plans. Nobody wants to be an accessory to the large-scale bloodshed that might occur in Venezuela as a result of Washington’s desire to take possession of its oil.

But oddly enough, it is America’s failed attempt to persuade its allies to participate in the pre-invasion information bombardment that could prompt Washington to accelerate its venture, especially given that time is working against the Americans. They didn’t manage to remove Maduro in the few hours or, at the very least, days, after Juan Guaidó’s sudden appearance on the political scene, having taken on the role of acting president. Now the U.S. is in a hurry. With every new day it is increasingly losing face, considering it has already declared itself the savior of the Venezuelan people, and has said that “Maduro’s days are numbered.” But every day the delay clearly says otherwise: The situation in Venezuela is controlled by Maduro and his loyal army.

That’s why the strong-arm action by the U.S. against Venezuela is not just a dangerous possibility, but Washington’s real plan of action. This war, which has already been announced and now seems unavoidable, stems from the fact that the [United] States have backed themselves into a corner with their own statements about “the coming end of Maduro’s dictatorship.” There is only one way out of this corner: by way of force.

Maduro himself has repeatedly spoken about America’s preparation for a scenario based on the use of force. A few days ago, the Cuban minister of foreign affairs, Bruno Rodríguez, became, perhaps, the first official foreign representative to directly accuse the U.S. of redeploying soldiers in Venezuela. He said that the Cuban authorities “have all the evidence allowing them to state that flights are being carried out from American bases where both the Special Operations Unit and the Marine Corps, which are being used for campaigns as part of preparations for action against Venezuela, are active.”

And now, evidence gathered by the Russian authorities attests to this. Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev confirmed this information, among other things, the other day.

And so, while watching Washington’s military preparations, its Latin American allies have quickly backpedaled. The results of the Lima Group meeting, which took place on Feb. 25 in the Colombian capital of Bogotá, illustrate this. The final declaration from the negotiations was an amorphous text whose content turned out to be insignificant, consisting of words about democracy, under which was written anything that seemed to fit. There were also a couple of sentences about the necessity of free elections and blocking Venezuelan funds in the Lima Group countries. ** (This is the only tangible measure taken under pressure from the U.S.) But the main thing is that there was not one word in the declaration about “all [the] possible options” against Venezuela, which both Trump and Guaido are talking about while suggesting an invasion.

Moreover, this declaration turned out to be a guise for hiding the real contradiction between the U.S. (which was represented at the meeting by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence) and their allies in Latin America. The Brazilian Vice President Antônio Mourão, who attended the conference in Bogotá and knows the opinions of its participants, publicly revealed his genuine overall attitude. In an interview with the Brazilian TV channel Globo, he effectively let slip that “the countries joining the ‘Lima Group’ do not want to carry out an armed intervention in Venezuela.” This demonstrates the complete fiasco that is the U.S. campaign to demonize the Republic and Maduro. Mourão added that Brazil does not intend to make its territory available to the U.S. for an invasion of Venezuela.

There are quite remarkable comments regarding the Venezuelan crisis coming from Brussels. Referring to the events on the Venezuela-Colombia border on Feb. 23, the spokesperson for European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Maja Kocijancic stated that “we must avoid military intervention in Venezuelan affairs.” With that, we see that the United States has not managed to assemble a coalition of countries to share in their venture. The only country that remains fully on Washington’s side in all its ventures on the continent is Colombia, which will most likely be used by the Americans as a foothold for the armed operation. What else can one expect; in 2018 Colombia officially became a “NATO global partner.”

The U.S. could resort to a time-tested method that would be carried out from Colombia, i.e., the “partisan” war. This is exactly how it fought the Sandinista government of Nicaragua in the 1980s along with the troops of the so-called Contras, who undertook their incursions from a base in neighboring Honduras. Guaidó could, for example, announce the creation of some form of “Liberation Army of Venezuela.” Mercenaries of different nationalities would fight as part of this army at America’s expense and under the supervision of American advisers.

There is a growing danger that the United States will attempt to physically eliminate Maduro in the hope that after the murder of the legitimate president, the situation in the country itself will begin favoring the Americans. A lot, if not everything, depends on Maduro personally – on his determination and courage. And Maduro understands that. Speaking the other day in front of his supporters, he announced that both citizens and the military should protect the country if “anything happens to it.”

*Editor’s note: The Lima Group is a multilateral body that was established following the Lima Declaration on Aug. 8, 2017 in the Peruvian capital of Lima, where representatives of 12 countries met in order to establish a peaceful exit to the crisis in Venezuela.

**Editor’s note: Lima Group countries include the 12 that initially signed the Lima declaration: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay and Peru.