European-American Relations Cannot Return to the Past

Recently, the conflict between Germany and America has become a focus of public conversation. On June 5, without consulting Germany or NATO, President Donald Trump unilaterally announced the withdrawal of 9,500 troops from Germany. The German public was in an uproar. Additionally, the United States wants to pass a bill in order to increase sanctions on the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refusal to attend the Group of Seven major industrial nations summit due to the pandemic highlights the stark differences between the two sides.

The conflict between Germany and the U.S. has remained prominent over the past few years, particularly regarding disagreements over NATO, the refugee crisis, trade and German-Russian relations. It should be noted that the German-American conflict does not exist in isolation, but is only a part of the broader conflict between Europe and the U.S. Over the past few years, the Trump administration has ignored the interests and concerns of its European allies and abandoned these allies as worthless. European countries are also extremely dissatisfied and disappointed with the U.S., and have questioned the value of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

From the U.S. side, the Trump administration is self-centered and its neglect and even hostility toward Europe and the TTIP is obvious. First of all, simply and crudely, American unilateralist practices have repeatedly trampled on major European security interests. These include withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement, assassinating important Iranian military leaders without informing U.S. allies, intensifying the conflict between Israel and Palestine, withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and so on. Second, regarding Europe as an economic enemy rather than a strategic partner, the U.S. has imposed special tariffs on exported European Union steel and aluminum products, and has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on cars imported from Europe. Third, the U.S. was pleased with the disintegration of the EU, and maintains an unprecedented attitude of disregard and even hostility toward its reunification.

In short, unlike previous conflicts in trans-Atlantic relations that focused on specific events such as the Vietnam War, the Iraq War and disagreements over Soviet policies, etc., the Trump administration can currently be described as initiating a comprehensive attack on Europe in many fields, such as diplomacy, security, economics and others.

Undoubtedly, aside from Trump, there are deeper reasons for the changes and uncertainties in the relationship between Europe and the U.S. Although the current conflict is focused on Trump, it is actually the result of several different factors, such as differences in geopolitics, economic competition and internal social and political changes.

First, the geopolitical differences between Europe and the U.S. have become increasingly apparent. The focus of U.S. strategy has shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, and a reduced focus on Europe has also meant a reduction in sensitivity to European concerns and interests. The U.S. regards China as its biggest adversary and security threat, but Europe’s views do not entirely concur with this view. Europe has its own interests and does not necessarily agree with U.S. perceptions of security threats. European security interests lie mainly in its surrounding area, and in this regard, the U.S. has become the greatest disruptor of European interests. In the long run, the demographics of Europe and the United States will increasingly diverge. Europe is more sensitive to the Islamic world, and many people in Europe dislike or even hate the United States; the U.S. pays more attention to Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. The cultural and relational ties across the Atlantic have weakened, and each side’s diplomatic focus will only become more disparate.

Second, the economic competition between Europe and the U.S. is becoming increasingly intense, and the conflict is growing. In the traditional manufacturing sector, Europe has a relatively large advantage, and the U.S. is increasingly dissatisfied. In the highly promising digital economy, the battle for control is more prominent. Europe has declared war on Silicon Valley through antitrust laws, digital taxes, privacy protection measures and other policies.

Third, there are profound changes in the internal society and politics of Europe and the United States. On both sides of the Atlantic, populism has become an increasingly prominent social and political phenomenon. Populism is essentially nationalism over internationalism, anti-globalization rather than globalism, unilateralism versus multilateralism, and confrontation rather than cooperation. The Trump administration’s populism and nationalism lead it to scorn all traditional value systems, including the TTIP. American support for European populism will only further weaken the so-called foundational values of the TTIP, such as democracy, human rights, international regulations, free trade, etc., thereby fundamentally weakening relations between Europe and the U.S.

Overall, the conflicts between the U.S. and Europe will become more prominent over time. On the one hand, the U.S. is reluctant to pay its dues and no longer considers its alliance with Europe to be an entirely positive asset. The U.S. is currently reassessing its national interests, including whether or not maintaining the ally system is worth the cost to the economy and military protection. On the other hand, Europe has become accustomed to the aid and protection of the U.S. In the face of change, this reliance has become inappropriate and Europe has been forced to readjust its relationship with and policies toward the U.S. Changes in how the U.S. and Europe perceive each other, and how they perceive their role in the TTIP, will severely impact policies for each side. This interdependence may eventually create a self-fulfilling prophecy, loosening the American-European alliance.

It is impossible for the relationship between Europe and the U.S. to return to its past strength. On the one hand, the U.S. has changed and is no longer confident in itself, acting both skeptical and irritable. The U.S. would do anything to maintain its hegemonic status, including damaging the international order, or harming the interests of its allies. On the other hand, Europe is also changing. The United Kingdom has left the European Union, and the U.S. has lost its grip on Europe. Europe has begun to seriously prepare a plan B for a post-American era by strengthening its strategic autonomy and building European sovereignty.

Obviously, Europe and the U.S. still rely on each other, especially Europe, which remains very dependent on the U.S. In the future, the two sides will still cooperate relatively closely, but at the same time disputes and conflicts will continue unabated. Both sides are gradually moving away from relying on each other as a diplomatic starting point, and are beginning to look more at third parties. Even though the U.S. will have a new president in the future, European-American relations will not be able to return to those of the past.