Trump’s Madhouse

The president can no longer win the election — but he can usurp the presidency. It’s not about votes anymore, it’s about chaos and Dec. 8. The Democrats have to adjust to his strategy.

Donald Trump’s behavior is in no way irrational. At first glance, it may seem undemocratic that the president does not recognize the raw numbers of the vote. But given the president’s dogged persistence, it’s easy to see what movie is playing right in front of his eyes. Trump will not win the election by votes — but he can usurp it with tricks of the process.

The period between Election Day in the U.S. and the day the new president is sworn in is 79 days. This is the period during which important dates fall, such as “the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December,” when electors across the country are due to cast their votes to elect the president. This year it’s Dec. 14.

Before that, the election calendar includes “safe harbor day,” which falls on the 36th day after the election — Dec. 8. Electoral law allows votes to be counted during this period. By that day, the votes must have reached the safe haven. Then the states have to certify the result and designate their electors. But that also means that after Dec. 8, no port is safe anymore.

Contrary to appearances, the president isn’t sitting in the White House firing uncontrolled tweets. No, Trump is pursuing the strategy of a man who will not get enough votes and now wants to fight for victory in another way. The U.S. Constitution and electoral laws give him the ability to do so.

As a first step, Trump discredits the election result, reports legal doubts and subjects the procedure to his timing. This has been happening for months: vote counting resources were thinned out, the voting-by-mail procedure was questioned or hampered, the arguments against a lengthy counting process were repeated. All of this increases the scope for possible litigation and procedures to contest the vote. Recounts of the results in entire states are particularly lengthy — sensitive proceedings that can be accompanied with a lot of noise and moved into the gray area of illegality.

The more lawsuits are brought, the greater the chance that the states will not determine an official result and thus not be able to certify their election results on Dec. 8 and nominate the electors.

But then a political game begins, or to put it with the appropriate severity: war. The electors are actually sent by the winning party, but there was a ruling by the Supreme Court in the 2000 Bush v. Gore election conflict, according to which the states can claim this right. The state legislatures or governors are empowered to do this. The legislatures in the controversial states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin are all dominated by the Republicans, as are some of those governorships.

If this gateway through the states is blocked, and if the Electoral College does not meet, then the legal dispute goes into the third round. Then in Washington, the House of Representatives will elect the president. There the Democrats make up the majority, but the legal basis for this emergency procedure is more than vague and opens up the last, but particularly promising, path to the Supreme Court.

All of these procedural steps open up new options for Trump to hold onto office. The Democrats’ best chance now is to win as many states as possible by a majority of the vote and thus secure themselves against one or the other attempt at being challenged. Trump will not be able to paralyze all blue states; perhaps some of them.

Trump’s biography and understanding of office leave no doubt that the man will use every dirty trick he can. America has to prepare for a long winter of uncertainty, in which the president and his henchmen want to stir up large parts of the country to create a climate of chaos and lack of leadership.

This is the strategy Joe Biden and the law-oriented majority in the U.S. must adapt to. It would be helpful if the Republicans in Congress broke their telling silence and also pointed out the power of the majority to Trump. Because the fate of this democracy is now being decided. Otherwise bedlam threatens — the madhouse that Trump has already announced.