Washington Gave Georgia the Green Light

NATO diplomacy failed in Georgia’s case

With the war in the Caucasus, Georgia’s chances of joining NATO now lie far into the future. They received the “go-ahead” from the Bush administration to move militarily against the breakaway provinces.

Since the end of the Cold War nearly 20 years ago, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union propelled the remaining military alliance, NATO, into a “new political role.” Yesterday, NATO demonstrated yet again how empty the concept remains, and that the alliance of 27 remaining members is now helpless, divided and incapable of action as evidenced by an actual hot war in the Caucasus. A meeting of the NATO-Russian committee was planned for late yesterday morning at the NATO Headquarters, which would have been the most important to date in finding a solution to the conflict. The meeting, however, was cancelled abruptly due to “time problems and difficulties with planning,” according to a NATO spokesperson.

In reality, the U.S. and its allies blocked the meeting with the Russian representative. The American delegation never showed up for a planned conference in the morning. After consultation with the Bush administration, the Georgian Foreign Minister, Eka Tkeshelashvili, cancelled his participation citing conditions in his homeland. The conference planned for yesterday afternoon (without Russia) was seen at best by NATO diplomats as a collective attempt to convince Moscow and Tbilisi to achieve a lasting cease-fire and a political solution to the conflict.

Thus far, the 27 NATO members are unable to criticize or accuse either side in the conflict because they have not reached a consensus. In recent preliminary talks both in Brussels and between world governments, the U.S., Poland and the three Baltic states have pressed for a condemnation of Russia’s acts of war and have called for stronger support for accepting Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO as was promised at the April 2008 NATO-summit in Bucharest. The Czech Republic and Hungary also support this move. But the majority of NATO members, under the leadership of Germany and France, want to “avoid pouring oil on the fire,” as a spokesman for one of these countries told our correspondent. Behind closed doors, at any rate, NATO diplomats recognize that the prospect of Georgia’s accession to NATO membership promised during the Bucharest summit, caused an escalation that resulted in the current war. They also realize that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s sharp rhetoric toward Moscow and the leaders of breakaway province South Ossetia fostered the idea that the provinces could be taken back through military force. Diplomats from both eastern and western NATO nations claim that Saakashvili got “numerous signals of support” from Washington during the past several months.

The diplomats believe that the Bush administration either underestimated the dangers of a Russian military reaction, or knowingly took that into account. During the past few months, the Georgian President was made aware that he could not count on the support of NATO if he decided to move militarily against South Ossetia, despite his nation’s prospects of becoming a NATO member in the future. This was made clear to him by Germany and other European countries, as well as by NATO member Canada. The two former Soviet Republics, Georgia and the Ukraine, were not included in the membership action-plan (MAP) at the April meeting in Bucharest, despite American support. Their inclusion was opposed by Germany and France right from the start. The Georgian and Ukranian governments were, however, promised that they would become members at a later date. Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko said at the time, “Ukraine will be part of NATO. This is an historic event.” Polish Foreign Minister Radosly Sikorski claimed their membership in NATO was now “inevitable.” His German counterpart, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier also welcomed the summit’s decision as “a signal that Georgia and the Ukraine were on the road toward NATO and we hope for their success.”

According to the agreed procedure, NATO Foreign Ministers are to examine both nations’ progress toward fulfillment of membership criteria. Up until the start of the Caucasus war, both Georgia and the Ukraine assumed the NATO Council would formally include them both in the Membership Action Plan in December.

“Nothing is certain now even if the United States and eastern European members insist upon it,” a western-European NATO diplomat told our correspondent yesterday. Quite possibly, the Bucharest plans may have to be “shelved indefinitely.”