A Hollow Return to the Nuclear Deal

For some time, the Democrats have focused on making a hollow return to the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. They developed this strategy before winning the U.S. presidential election and waited for a chance to put it into action. Under this approach, the U.S. is to announce a return to the JCPOA, regaining its membership in the agreement. This move allows the U.S. to portray itself as a defender of multilateralism in the world order without suspending the sanctions on Iranian oil, banks, credit and commerce. The U.S. State and Treasury Departments will be ordered to delay the process of lifting sanctions with the aim of pressuring Iran into further concessions with fewer commitments from the West.

A hollow return by the United States to the JCPOA would certainly be damaging to Iran, as Washington will continue the sanctions on our country while benefiting from the JCPOA and Resolution 2231 of the U.N. Security Council. One of the issues of concern is the “snapback” mechanism. Under the Donald Trump presidency, the permanent and nonpermanent members of the U.N. Security Council prevented the enactment of this costly and damaging mechanism. However, the superficial return of the U.S. to the JCPOA would allow Joe Biden and his administration to implement multilateral sanctions against Iran without justification.

The latest comments from Ali Khamenei take note of this issue. The U.S. return to the JCPOA without lifting sanctions would be harmful to Iran.

Biden insists that Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy will be replaced with a strategy of “smart pressure” against Iran. Biden and members of his administration, like Jake Sullivan and Antony Blinken, believe in an opportunity-driven approach to the actions taken by the previous administration. The Biden administration believes it needs to hold synchronized parallel negotiations to limit Iran with regard to missile, nuclear, and regional issues. This follows the same strategy of inhibiting a strong Iran, adopted by all U.S. presidents since Jimmy Carter.

Through the “smart pressure” strategy, Biden sees the JCPOA as a launching pad for more restrictive agreements against Iran, rather than an end point for the hostilities between Iran and the U.S. By pursuing this approach, Biden is certain to leverage the strength of European players (specifically the U.K., Germany and France). As we have seen, the Trump era saw a strategic overlap of the U.S. and Europe against Iran. In the Biden era, we will see a strategic and tactical overlap of the U.S. and Europe. Biden’s approach to the JCPOA will be more complicated than Trump’s. Under these conditions, abiding to principles and red lines in our foreign policy will be the key to victory in our diplomatic and nondiplomatic battles with the new U.S. government.