The new U.S. president will also have to take care of the region, whether he likes it or not. The problem is that he has to choose between bad politics and even worse politics.
President Joe Biden wants to focus his foreign policy on competition with China. Barack Obama mapped out this pivot from Europe and the Middle East. But like Obama and Donald Trump, Biden will not be able to wrest the United States from the crisis region between the Levant and the Hindu Kush, at least if he is concerned with America’s security and not with election strategy, like Trump was.
Above all, Trump wanted to bring U.S. soldiers home because he was hoping for votes. Biden is now paying the price for the hasty and partial withdrawal from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and four years of driving the wrong way politically. Biden’s predecessor played into the hands of America’s adversaries. In addition to bad options, Biden’s other options are only worse.
Tehran Would Like To Drive the Americans Out
It is more than propaganda when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Iran calls for the downfall of the United States. The leading hard-liners want to drive the Americans out of the region, 30 years after the Washington hegemony that was established in the Gulf War against Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
Tehran wants to force a geopolitical reorganization. With its network of politically and religiously allied militias, the regime wants to keep its adversaries, the Sunni Gulf states and Israel, in check, through constant pinpricks and instigating permanent instability. What appear to be unconnected events fit into a single picture: the rocket attack on Erbil airport in the Kurdish region of Iraq, the offensive of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, new escalation in the nuclear dispute.
If Biden leaves the attack in Erbil unanswered, further attacks will follow. If he reacts militarily, he exacerbates the conflict. If he withdraws U.S. troops, Iraq falls to Iran’s vassals. That would fuel the conflicts between ethnic and religious groups. The Islamic State terrorist militia is already regaining strength.
Biden has ended support to Saudi Arabia for the war in Yemen and removed the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations, which is overdue and correct. But they are now trying to take an oil-rich province and terrorize Saudi Arabia with missiles. They have little interest in human suffering, let alone peace.
In the dispute over the nuclear agreement, Biden is harkening back to the Vienna agreement, which would give Iran access to billions of dollars in oil. Biden is conditioning negotiations on Tehran’s missile program and regional policy on returning to the deal. Tehran is ready to put the brakes on its missile plans again. Above all, the regime wants to restore its income quickly and pursue its agenda unhindered.
A Comprehensive Deal? Good Intentions, Nothing More
If Biden neglects U.S. security guarantees for its allies in the Middle East, it will also shatter his credibility in the Pacific. The only way out is a comprehensive deal. Biden will have to take Iran’s security and other interests into account, as well as those of the Gulf Arabs and of Israel. However, there are no partners for this. Kleptocrats and ideologues rule in Tehran and control their people with guns. There is an aged monarch on the throne in Riyadh who is unlikely to chase down his impulsive son, the crown prince. It is therefore quite possible that Biden’s successor will one day be in a situation similar to the one Biden now faces. In terms of China and Russia, you can be quite certain of that.
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