Migratory Eagles*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Izvestia’s military analyst Anton Lavrov on whether supplying American MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones to Kyiv will influence the situation on the front line.

In an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he sees no point in supplying Ukraine with combat drones. According to him, as with other arms supplies from abroad, this will only prolong the conflict and not change the situation on the battlefield.

One of the unmanned aerial vehicles that Kyiv is now looking forward to receiving is the MQ-1C Gray Eagle reconnaissance and combat aircraft system. This is indeed a high-tech novelty, the U.S. Army’s main combat drone, designed to replace the once-popular MQ-1 Predator, a pioneer in the business of large combat drones. The first Eagles entered service in 2009 but have since undergone several significant upgrades.

According to U.S. media reports, selling those drones to Ukraine is now under consideration by President Joe Biden. While the deal will require congressional approval following Biden’s decision, it is unlikely to be delayed. It is reported that the first batch will include four drones, a ground control station and everything needed for maintenance.

The heavy vehicle, weighing almost two tons, can stay continuously airborne for 12 to 36 hours, depending on its modifications and payload. It is equipped with an extensive set of sensors, from optical and infrared to radar. Unlike previous U.S. combat drones, the MQ-1C Gray Eagle takes off and lands automatically, which should make it easier for the Ukrainian army to master its use.

Each vehicle can carry up to eight effective Hellfire anti-tank guided missiles. Those missiles are more powerful than those used by the Turkish Bayraktar TB2. An alternative option is using the small GBU-44/B Viper Strike glide bombs, designed to hit light armored vehicles and cars. However, the problem with all forms of such weapons is the same — a low range that does not exceed 10 kilometers.

The MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones are controlled primarily through satellite communication. This allows operators and maintenance facilities to be located somewhere in the air defense-covered region of western Ukraine, far from the immediate danger of multiple rocket launch attacks and defense or tactical air strikes.

If delivered, the drone would be the largest in Ukraine’s arsenal, not counting the greatly outdated Soviet Tu-143 Reys drones. Its primary disadvantage is its size, making it vulnerable to air defense systems and fighter jets.

Before the start of the special military operation, the Ukrainian command had pinned high hopes on the Bayraktar TB2 reconnaissance and combat drones, half the size of the MQ-1C Gray Eagles. But it turned out that they perform radically worse against an enemy with advanced air defense systems and aviation than against weak armies and various irregular military formations.

Initially, Ukrainians managed to achieve a few successes in one-way suicide attacks. But soon the drones simply ran out, covering the front line with their debris. In early May, with the help of a new batch of drones supplied by Turkey, the Ukrainian army attempted to retake Snake Island but lost them there as well, failing to achieve much. For almost a month now, the Ukrainian command has not been able to boast of any footage of a successful attack. In total, during the special military operation, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the Russian army destroyed several dozen UAVs, similar in characteristics to those that the Biden administration is preparing to supply. Putin said about such UAVs that the Russian “air defenses are cracking them like nuts.”

Russian aircraft are especially dangerous for the MQ-1C Grey Eagles. The location of long- and medium-range anti-aircraft missile launchers is usually not a big surprise to the enemy. The areas of their possible activity are known and can simply be flown around. But once a large drone is detected by radar, it is impossible for it to evade the aircraft. A drone is almost immobile compared to a fighter jet and cannot defend itself or dodge an attack.

Using an air defense missile or a fighter jet to destroy a high-tech MQ-1C Gray Eagle that costs $20 million, together with Hellfire missiles, each of which costs another $150,000, is not going to arouse any pity.

On the front line, four MQ-1C Gray Eagles cannot be much more effective than their little Turkish brothers. Even without the air defense factor, they are too dependent on the powerful military infrastructure available to the U.S., primarily intelligence. Kyiv might not even send those drones on suicidal combat missions, but would prefer to use them as reconnaissance vehicles and fire lookouts. In that case, they have a chance to last a little longer, but they will not be able to change the situation on the front line anyway.

Such a delivery would have important symbolic value despite the purely military effectiveness of the drones, which is questionable. Perhaps Washington hopes that this will encourage other NATO allies to follow suit.

The author is a military analyst for Izvestia. The author’s opinion may not reflect the views of Izvestia’s editorial board.