Midterm Elections in the US: Implications for Mexico

Knowing Congress is essential for Mexico, so it can understand its positions, how it feels about Mexico and to influence those opinions.

Midterm elections in the U.S. will take place on Nov. 8, and 435 House seats are up for election along with 34 out of 100 Senate seats and 36 out of 50 governor positions.

Why do these elections affect Mexico? Because of the power Congress has to intervene in the affairs of other countries and affect our migrants and community.

1) Congress has the power to adopt laws. A Republican-controlled Congress would reject any immigration reform, either comprehensive reform or specific reform, with respect to “Dreamers,” which refers to young immigrants who would be subject to never-passed proposals in Congress called the DREAM Act. 2) Congress has the authority to implement treaties signed by the U.S., including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The legislation enacting the USMCA contemplates complex verification of Mexican public policies such as labor reform. 3) Congress controls the resources it approves; for example, $300 million to clean the Tijuana River, $3.5 billion for border infrastructure and joint programs of the United States Agency for International Development and the Mexican Agency for International Development Cooperation in Central America. Finally, Congress monitors the positions of other countries on issues of global and regional agendas such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the human rights situation in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, among others.

At the moment, both Democrats and Republicans are prioritizing the need to comply with the USMCA, particularly in terms of energy policy, the situation at the border, implementation of labor reform in Mexico, illicit drug trafficking, in particular fentanyl, respect for human rights, and the murder of journalists in our country.

Congress has not yet taken notice of the information provided by Guacamayaleaks, but we cannot rule out the possibility Congress will do so in the future.

The midterm results could result in four possible scenarios: 1) The Democrats retain control of both the House and the Senate including the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in the Senate; 2) The Republicans control both the House and the Senate; 3) The Democrats keep control of the Senate and lose the House of Representatives; or 4) The Democrats keep the House, but the Republicans win control of the Senate.

Weeks ago the polls indicated that Republicans would triumph in the midterms, but the Democrats have regained support based on two fundamental issues in the United States: the right to abortion and the investigation of Donald Trump for removing confidential documents from the White House when he left office.

If the Republicans win both the House and the Senate, it would render the Biden administration a lame duck and lead to legislative paralysis. It would stall confirmation of anyone nominated to fill positions that require Senate confirmation, and advance impeachment efforts against President Joe Biden along with an investigation into the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the business of his son Hunter Biden.