Trump’s Lead Grows Despite Accusations

This year, summer for our neighbors hasn’t allowed them any rest. Despite the season of vacations and the many climatic disturbances that fuel media elsewhere in the world, purely political issues continue to dominate headlines in the United States.

For the Democratic Party, despite good news such as economic growth, a low unemployment rate (3.5%) and falling inflation, the current administration is not popular. It is worth noting, for example, that a special prosecutor was just appointed to investigate the president’s son, Hunter Biden. This situation is causing concern for President Joe Biden’s camp.

For the Republican Party, despite the presence of several candidates in the running for the nomination, former President Donald Trump has considerably increased his lead over his rivals over the past few weeks.

This situation can be explained by the fact that Trump dominates the media landscape, largely due to the numerous charges that have been filed against him in court.

Trump Propelled by Accusations

Today, we see that each of the charges filed by the courts against the former president have actually had the effect of increasing his support in the polls and stimulating fundraising for his campaign. What’s more, Trump’s strategy of accusing legal authorities and the Biden administration of political persecution, all while presenting himself as a victim, seems to have had a markedly favorable impact on his candidacy thus far.

Yet, the accusations against him continue to accumulate. Recently, a Georgia grand jury charged the former president and some of his allies with having tried to reverse the results of the 2020 election in the southeastern U.S. state.

These are very serious accusations, with consequences sure to follow. As the charges have been filed by a grand jury, proceedings could move very quickly. The trial could even begin before the end of 2023 and unfold in front of cameras, according to the legal provisions in force in Georgia.

Despite the fact that the Republican Party took control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections, it could also be said that Trump lost his momentum with the electorate and within the party. Most of the star candidates associated with Trump suffered defeats, and the Republican margin of victory in the House was a mere five seats.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ potential presidential bid suggested that the prospect of a victory for Trump as the nominee chosen by the Republican Party was less and less certain. At that time, the debt ceiling agreement between President Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy also seemed to indicate that Trump’s grip on his party was waning.

But DeSantis Disappoints

It was in this context that DeSantis announced his candidacy. Despite the technological misfires during his spring announcement with Elon Musk, he won a decisive victory in November 2022 as governor of Florida (a 19% majority over his opponents), which put him in a good position against Trump, even if the two men shared conservative ideals that were relatively similar.

The big difference that DeSantis’ camp tried to exploit was to get the electorate to view DeSantis as the future and Trump as the past.

However, if DeSantis’ support and financing seemed well in the saddle a few months ago, the multiplication of legal proceedings against Trump completely prevented DeSantis from taking his place in the media. Thus, in a short period of time, the gap in the polls has widened in favor of Trump, who is omnipresent in American media reports.

So as the summer comes to an end, we see that DeSantis has failed both at imposing himself in the public space and at articulating a new vision for the future of the Republican Party (or that of the United States). At this moment, he trails by more than 30% in most polls and his funding is shrinking, leading him to make cuts in his political staff. Recently, he even made some major changes to his campaign leadership. In short, nothing bodes well for the Florida governor.

Of course, there is still time before the primaries start and the nomination of the Republican candidate for president. However, Trump’s gains with the party base remain formidable.

By this time in 2024, the two political parties will be on the way to officially designating their presidential candidates. Right now, everything points to a reprisal of the 2020 duel between Biden and Trump on the horizon, and Trump appears to have momentum in the most recent polls.

It remains to be seen what will happen to Trump’s advance in the context of the new legal proceedings weighing against him. To be continued!