Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump won the Iowa Republican caucuses. What will happen now?
The former president, who has held the lead in every poll since the start of the primary race, succeeded in mobilizing supporters who turned out at community assemblies to vote for him. This is payback for 2016 when, at the time, Iowa preferred Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, though it did not keep Trump from winning the presidential election later that year.
All eyes were, of course, on Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley to see who would finish second. Practically neck and neck, even if DeSantis did edge out the former South Carolina governor, neither was really able to create a surprise nor threaten Trump’s dominance in Iowa.
Does this mean the race is well and truly over? Even if Iowa is not particularly representative of the United States in 2024, given it is very conservative, rural and majority white — and its voters rarely choose the candidate who makes it to the White House — the fact remains that the aggregate of Republican polling at the national level shows Trump winning on all fronts.
All That for This?
The results were surely disappointing for the Florida governor, who invested a significant portion of his campaign funds and his efforts on the ground to win the Iowa caucuses. He may declare to anyone who will listen that his second-place finish is cause for optimism for the future; his expectations should be more realistic.
In the next primary, scheduled for Monday in New Hampshire, DeSantis is third in the polls, far behind Trump and Haley. No matter how one looks at it, there is no path for him to make it to the nomination stage or even overtake the former president, who lost in 2020.
In Iowa, Haley benefited from renewed attention, notably from moderate Republicans. But she still must prove that she can be an alternative to Trump. With fewer resources than DeSantis, and in the absence of a powerful electoral machine from the start of her campaign, her showing was not too bad, but certainly not enough to worry the Republican leader.
By Not Wanting To Displease …
Haley and DeSantis have only themselves to blame as they chose to beat around the bush, refusing to attack the leader directly from the outset. Terrified at the idea of offending the MAGA supporters they needed to win in the primaries and caucuses, they were content to scratch the surface of Trump’s weaknesses. Probably to their great misfortune, as Trump’s devoted fans listened to their rhetoric, they thought, “What good is it voting for pale imitations when you already prefer the original?” The result: The doomsayers remained in the Trumpist fold.
In the final days of the campaign, Haley and DeSantis tried to tarnish the former president’s image, hoping for electoral gains. The most scathing attack came from DeSantis the day before the Iowa caucuses were held. “You can be the most worthless Republican in America but if you kiss the ring, he’ll say you’re wonderful. You can be the strongest, most dynamic, successful Republican and conservative in America [presumably himself], but if you don’t kiss that ring, then he’ll try to trash you.”
A moment of clarity, but probably a little too late.
The battle is likely to be a fierce one between Haley and DeSantis, who are both fighting for the viability of their candidacies. They are silently betting on some kind of impact from the numerous trials Trump will face this spring — impacts that have not materialized up to now following all the charges filed against the former president.
Trump’s two main opponents are up against a man still in the lead in every state holding caucuses and primaries in the coming weeks. Which of the two will be the first to withdraw their candidacy due to lack of funds or popular Republican support? Probably the one hoping to remain in the good graces of Trump, who has a decided stronghold on the Republican Party remade in his image and according to his own interests.
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