Merely Shuddering at the Prospect Is Not Enough

Donald Trump has also won the New Hampshire primary. The world must prepare for the very real prospect of Trump and his dictatorial fantasies.

The reality has finally hit home. Trump’s one remaining challenger could not even beat him in liberal New Hampshire. The former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley, did not come off too badly, with just over 40% of the vote on Tuesday night.

However, she is trailing way behind in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in every other state. She has emphasized her intention to stay in the race for the forthcoming primaries. The vague hope that someone like Ron DeSantis, who suspended his campaign in the meantime, or Haley might be able to stop Trump from becoming the Republican candidate — the hope for some historic twist of fortune —has all but faded to the faintest of glimmers. They will not. The world is going to have to contend with Trump once again. That is, at least if things go the way Republican voters would like.

The additional forces of delusional conspiracy-theory fanatics, quasi-fascist ideologues, respect-craving elite haters, disenchanted Democratic voters, power-greedy reactionaries and cool-headed capital are working all too effectively. The idea that the United States just needs to come to its senses is proving naive, not least in the light of recent events and some election forecasts in Europe. There is no point in waiting for some heaven-sent conversion of hearts and minds to occur in the United States.

That is the good thing about this result. Now democratic America, Europe and the world must all brace themselves for the possibility of it happening again: Trump could return to the White House. And this time, it would be a Trump unchained, unfettered also by his own mind, as is becoming increasingly apparent. He has raised the prospect of a dictatorship. One should not only fear such a possibility; one must prepare for it, too.

It seems that such matters are already being discussed rather realistically both within Europe and NATO. The state of Europe’s defense capability, without the U.S. superpower, is now being evaluated, and the current impasse regarding aid for Ukraine is not perceived to augur well. Yet, are the G-20 and the G-7 nations at all prepared to function without the U.S.? Is international climate diplomacy ready to reach agreements capable of stalling the climate emergency without U.S. commitment to the process?

Creative Approaches Are Needed

In the U.S. itself, everything the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act has set in motion, in terms of investments and progress on the path to decarbonization, risks being reversed. The countless infrastructure projects initiated by “Bidenomics” are also far from assured. Creative solutions must now be devised to safeguard all of this.

And what does the announcement of a dictatorial regime mean for the people of the United States, particularly for marginalized groups? These questions are not nearly as theoretical as they might appear at first sight. Answers are needed now, just in case the worst case should come to pass. For if there is one lesson to draw from recent history, it is that one needs to be prepared for anything and very little remains inconceivable.

A Trump victory over the current incumbent is by no means a foregone conclusion. The danger is simply a real one. If Joe Biden’s strategy of targeting the more moderate center ground were to gain hold again and successfully mobilize diverse demographic groups, he would stand a good chance of getting reelected. One just shouldn’t count on it.