Will Immigration Decide the Outcome of the US Presidential Election?

The southern border crisis and immigration are among the hottest issues of this year’s U.S. presidential campaign.

Immigrants crossing the U.S. border come not only from South America but from all over the world. “The present migrant crisis is quite unprecedented, both in scale, in the diversity of the nationalities that are coming to the border, and the impact it’s having not only on the border states but in the states and cities inside the country,” said Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, in an interview with CNBC.

After crossing the border, the migrants submit asylum applications and wait for months or years because immigration courts lack capacity to handle processing. The communities living near the border in Republican Texas complain about the newcomers, who need shelter and food and who don’t have jobs or work permits.

Up to a quarter of a million migrants a month cross the border between Mexico and the U.S. This is primarily the result of the collapse of the economies and democracy in many countries in Latin America.

But in the last year, the crisis has also hit Democrats in big cities like New York and Chicago, where the governor of Texas is sending buses full of newcomers. City residents direct their anger mainly at the government, demanding that the cities provide the funds to cover social assistance legally required for the newcomers.

Control Migration. But How?

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump agree on one thing: The country must contain uncontrolled immigration. “It’s long past time to act,” Biden said in Texas on Thursday. This is where the similarities in approach to the subject end.

Biden and Trump also have different visions of how to resolve the crisis. “Mr. Biden says he would close the border if only he could. Mr. Trump says Mr. Biden could close the border if only he would,” The New York Times wrote in the wake of the visit by the candidates to the border last week.

Biden represents a belief in legislative solutions, while Trump promises dictatorial moves from day one of his term. While getting off the plane in Texas, he said it’s “a very dangerous border. We’re gonna take care of it.”

President Biden backed a compromise bill drafted by Republican and Democratic senators that would increase funding for border controls, tighten asylum-seeker criteria and even close the border. The bill promised real steps to solve the problem, but it got stuck in the House of Representatives because Trump didn’t like it.

Critics say the former president fears that enacting the law will benefit his opponent in this year’s election, and he has effectively incited Republican lawmakers to vote against it.

The Migration Crisis. The Republicans’ Election Weapon

Last Thursday in Texas, Biden urged Trump to join him in efforts to resolve the crisis. Three hundred miles away, Trump embraced the rhetoric of fear, claiming that “this is like a war. Now the U.S. is being overrun by the Biden migrant crime,” he said, speaking alongside Gov. Gregory Abbott, who is setting up a base of operations at Eagle Pass for more than 2,000 soldiers tasked with curbing illegal border crossings.

Immigration as a political issue is working in the Republicans’ favor and is seen as a weakness for Democrats in this election cycle.

Republicans in Congress have impeached Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for alleged shortcomings in border control policy. The Biden administration is waiting for Congress to act. Republicans think that Biden himself can resolve the problem by reinstating executive orders that Trump issued but were later overturned.

“If President Biden truly cared to acknowledge the national security crisis at the southern border, he would sit down at his desk and sign executive orders,” House Speaker Mike Johnson wrote on X.

What Can Immigrants Do for the US?

Republicans look at migrants unfavorably and say they are taking advantage of the system, while Trump considers them to be criminals. However, government data shows that foreigners are useful to the American economy. They helped the economy recover from the pandemic and may be a key to its continued development. “They are taking pressure off the economy … In fact, it’s probably one reason why the economy grew so strongly last year,” said Mark Zadni, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

When the U.S. resumed processing visa applications in 2021-2022 after the pandemic, employment increased and immigrants filled the gaps in the labor market that arose in many sectors after a period of lockdowns and a wave of layoffs. In the longer run, immigrants will also benefit America, where the birth rate is falling and the older generation is retiring and relying on Social Security benefits and Medicare, funded by working class taxes.

The ideological line on immigration between Democrats and Republicans is blurring. Especially since the immigrants coming to the U.S. are young and often take the jobs that Americans avoid.

Fortunately for the economy — as it turns out — in the fiscal year that ended on July 2, 2023, immigration reached its highest level since 2017. Foreigners now account for 18.6% of the U.S. workforce. According to the Pew Research Center, most of them have legal residency. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the number of people active in the U.S. labor market will not decrease over the next 10 years — because of immigrants.