Outcome: Ted Kennedy Deceased, Obama Badly Injured

There isn’t a shadow of a doubt. Yesterday’s Democratic defeat in Massachusetts is catastrophic.

On the symbolic level: Ted Kennedy, who worked all his life toward creating a universal health care system in his country was replaced by a man who promised to make that train derail even before it entered the station.

On the political level: Obama won that state with a 25 point advantage during the presidential election 14 months ago. The Democrats, from their fortress, took a 30 point drop, losing with 5 a point difference. It is as if a Democrat had been elected a Senator from Texas.

On the practical level: Obama loses his super-majority of 60 seats (out of 100) in the Senate. It is the number required to prevent Republicans from filibustering or, in other words, to make the debates go on forever and prevent a vote from taking place (for a practical example, see “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,” by Frank Capra). The ability to make the Senate vote again on the modified version of the health reform project is thus compromised. (There would need to be a vote before the arrival of the new Republican Senator, or a long enough delay on the project to convince the moderate Republican Senator from Maine, Olympia Snowe, to take up the cause. Two improbable scenarios.)

On the electoral level: moderate Democrats in the Senate and the House of Representatives, who must confront the electorate during the mid-term election next November, are terrified by last night’s election result. They will now be more hesitant than ever to support Obama’s progressive policies that could take away some of their electorate. Their seats and their jobs depend on it.

On the public policies level: moderate commentator David Gergen, former adviser to Bush Senior and Clinton, told CNN last night that “We have most likely read the obituary of the universal health care system, a democratic dream for over 70 years […].” The bill on climate change will be extremely difficult to pass, the reform on immigration is probably already dead for the year, the reform of financial markets will probably turn out to be much milder.

Obama’s choice: the president must make his speech on the State of the Union in one week. He must choose between contrition and withdrawal, or contrition and a counter-attack. A recoil on health care at this stage would be the Waterloo the Republicans have wanted to inflict upon him for a year now. His only choice is to rush forward, especially since the polls are misleading, since the opposition, who holds the majority, is comprised of all the discontented who believe the reforms go too far (one third), plus those who believe that reform doesn’t go far enough (another third).

Obama’s challenge is to convince his slim democratic majority in the House to adopt, as is, the bill already voted on by the Senate, which would put an end to the parliamentary process and would allow him to sign this historic text. His ability to bring people together inside his own party is thus at stake at a time when certain democratic representatives were claiming a retreat in front of the microphones.

Little hope remains for a meaningful bill on ecology because public opinion is unfortunately not answering that call. Obama will be able to bypass Congress to impose a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by the Environmental Protection Agency, but the systemic impact will be smaller. This represents a loss in the planetary momentum of this crucial file.

However, Obama’s decision to raise his voice against banks and their bonuses these past weeks should open up a more offensive chapter in that domain, at the same time politically populist and economically necessary, and where the wrath of public opinion can be mobilized.

Obama could, next November, lose the majority he holds in the House and the Senate. The election in Massachusetts will have been the preview of this disaster movie. The president’s ability to be a strong source of progress will suffer a lot from these shifts in the electorate.

But if he doesn’t rally his troops to make use of his majority positions while he still has them, what purpose will they have served?