Negotiating the Negotiations

In order to jump-start Middle East peace negotiations, a U.S. delegation led by Vice-President Joe Biden is visiting the region. Does this new initiative have any chance of success?

President Barack Obama wants Israelis and Palestinians to resume peace negotiations at whatever level and in whatever form. At first glance, the chances for success are minimal.

Vice-President Joe Biden and Special Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell are in the Holy Land. Separately, they’re consulting with Israeli President Shimon Peres and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and in Ramallah with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The Arab League, the executive branch of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, has given the green light to four months of indirect negotiations. This makes it possible for Abbas to back away from his previous insistence on a complete halt to the continuing Israeli expansion of settlements in the West Bank without any loss of face. But nobody believes this will ultimately lead to direct negotiations after the four-month period expires. Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator for the Palestinians, is pessimistic, as is the Secretary of the PLO executive branch, Yasser Abed Rabo: Erekat is convinced that Netanyahu will not agree to the pre-1967 boundaries for a new Palestinian state. But agreement on at least one of the three issues — new borders, Jerusalem and the right of return for refugees — form the sine qua non for any direct negotiations of final status.

But there is one positive surprise development in preparation for the talks. For the first time, the Palestinians say they are open to an exchange of territories with Israel provided the new territory is identical in size to the land they lost to Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War. In this context, they are prepared to swap about 1.9 percent of the West Bank in which Israel could incorporate their most important settlement blocs.

The Palestinians, however, are assuming that Netanyahu will reject the offer. First, because he wants significantly more territory in which to house around 80 percent of the 300,000 settlers on Israeli territory and second, because he is likely to encounter significant opposition to such an agreement from within his own ranks. Israel, Palestinians hope, would then be seen as an impediment to the peace process, thereby incurring increased pressure from the Middle East Quartet (the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia).

Netanyahu has already reluctantly bowed to American pressure to accept the two-state solution and agreed to negotiate without pre-conditions. But nobody in Jerusalem believes the Americans could wrest the necessary concessions from him that would be necessary for real progress, because — according to Netanyahu’s supporters — Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank are satisfied with the status quo. Besides, Netanyahu wants to appease the opposition within his own government. His main priority during his first year in office is to consolidate his power by stabilizing the government rather than to make any political progress. How little Israel is concerned about the American initiative was symbolically shown by its approval to build another 112 homes in the deeply religious Beitar Illit settlement just shortly prior to Biden’s visit.

The high point of these U.S. endeavors is Vice-President Biden’s visit to the Middle East. He is the highest-ranking American thus far involved in the peace process. In Jerusalem and Ramallah, people are describing this initiative as indicative of Obama’s disappointment with Arab rejections of his overtures. He has come to the same conclusion as his predecessor that negotiations are only possible if the U.S. coddles its strategic partner Israel.

It won’t be sufficient for the United States to just play the role of observer. Biden said the U.S. will have to engage actively and make suggestions. But: had the chances for progress been greater, Obama would probably have gone to the Middle East himself to fire the starting gun. He still might visit in the fall just prior to the mid-term elections in the hope of garnering the support of America’s Jewish voters for Democrats.