Working on Mistakes

In the period from 19 to 21 March, 2010, the U.S. Congress will hold a final vote on the bill regarding the integrated optimization of health insurance. It should put an end to the question of launching key social reforms, developed by the Democratic cabinet of Barack Obama. A radical transformation of the current mechanism, which would provide health insurance by expanding the obligations of the state, is a major socio-political project of the current administration.

Voting on the reform will be a deciding event in the American political season of 2010. The results will directly affect the future of the Obama administration and the strength of the ruling Democratic party in Congress. If approved, the reform of the current cabinet will receive an additional electorate in a pool of 31 million people who receive health insurance. The voices of these voters could have decisive influence on the results of the presidential election in 2012. If Obama can maintain his current supporters and add the recipients of reform who did not support the Democratic Party before, the probability of his reelection to a second term will be more likely. Optimization of the health insurance system could also strengthen the Democratic position in Congress. Proponents of the “social state” in American society could be a powerful bloc of the ruling party in the upcoming Congressional elections, which will be held November 2, 2010.

On the eve of key congressional elections in 2010, the White House has made concentrated lobbying efforts in order to reach a favorable decision in Congress. Since early March, Obama’s policy advisers have held a series of multilateral meetings with representatives of each the factions of the Democratic Party in the Senate and House of Representatives. At the same time, some of the top aides turned to congressmen and their electorates to support reform in the print and television media. Finally, beginning March 15, President Obama held personal negotiations with lawmakers who were undecided about the bill.

This concentrated intensification of the efforts of the White House on the legislative track shows that the Obama administration is beginning to work on the mistakes in the framework of realization of its ambitious program of social transformation in the United States. The Democrats not only continued their previous dialogue with Congress, but also tried to adapt the line of its own conduct to be appropriate for the current political situation. The format of activity in the social field has undergone transformation with the goal of strengthening the quality of support for the government among Democratic factions.

The main reason for the administration’s desire to achieve changes of socio-economic policy has been the weakening of the electoral position of the Democratic Party, which was registered in the second half of 2009 and early 2010. A gradual drop in the personal popularity rating for Obama began as early as September 2009. In November, the Democrats lost gubernatorial elections in the states of New Jersey and Virginia.

On January 19, 2010, the ruling party was dealt a very severe blow. During the election, the Massachusetts seat went to the GOP candidate, Scott Brown. And he was able to circumvent the White House-backed, Democratic candidate, Martha Coakley, who had the active support of the party. The victory of Republicans in Massachusetts meant not only that they were able to get a symbolic representation in the “citadel” of the Democratic Party (before Brown, the Democrats controlled the state for 46 years). It also meant that the Democrats lost the super majority in the upper chamber of Congress, which previously allowed them to pass bills without the consent of the GOP. As of February 4, 2010, (the official date of Senator Brown’s entry into office), the Republicans have 41 seats in the Senate, while 57 seats remain at the Democrats’ disposal (two senators are formally independent, but openly support the ruling party).

The chain of the Democrats’ “retreat” began to signal that their absolute dominance in American political life is gradually coming to an end. It has become increasingly difficult to obtain favorable decisions for the Obama administration and party factions on Capitol Hill. Democrats are no longer fully convinced of the propriety of promoted initiatives. Substantive policies of the government and the party are losing support among the population. The counter-game conducted by the GOP since January 2009, which started as an indistinguishable static, is becoming a serious counterbalance to the practical efforts of the White House. For this year, which will be a year for elections in Congress, the persistence of such trends means that the Democratic Party risks losing its present position in the inner political field. The administration can prevent adverse developments by overhauling the line of its activities, adapting its behavior to the needs of the surrounding political environment. “Work on mistakes,” launched by Democrats, was one such strategy to conduct a constructive review of Obama’s administration in accordance with the current challenges facing the government.