Can the West Do Us Any Harm?

Ten naïve questions.

1. Can the EU tighten the visa regime with Russia?

I doubt it. The EU won’t profit from it. The streams of Russian tourists have been a growing source of income for a number of European countries. It’d be silly to deliberately “lose” them. Also, it’d be irrational to rebuild the Iron Curtain in front of the students and scientists.

One could of course prevent our civil servants from getting a visa. However, thousands of officials and businessmen have to go from Europe to Russia on urgent business trips. They definitely wouldn’t want to encounter the unpleasant consequences of Moscow’s inevitable counter measures.

2. Is there a threat of severing diplomatic relations with major countries?

There definitely isn’t a threat. Nobody in the world would associate their long-term relations with nuclear Russia with a serious, but local conflict. Even Georgia didn’t dare to close their embassy in Moscow. Yesterday Tbilisi declared that they recall the ambassador, but keep two or three diplomats.

Similarly, by the way, Russia did exactly the same in autumn 2006, as Georgia was actively sending out “Russian spies”. In the end, it wasn’t such a big deal: a bit later our ambassador returned. Besides, it’d be weird if Tbilisi were to sever relations with a country where millions of Georgian citizens live.

3. Is curtailing of cooperation with NATO a danger?

It’s not curtailing: it’s freezing, and not even completely. We put on hold the part of cooperation that concerns military programmes, not losing anything in terms of protocol matters. However, as to the issues that NATO will definitely have difficulties without our help (cooperation with Afghanistan, global anti-terrorism programs etc.), Moscow is willing to continue the cooperation with the alliance. In other words, not we, but the NATO members should fear the deterioration in relations with Russia.

4. Is the formation of a global anti-Russian coalition that, for example the G8 calls for, realistic?

It’s a lost cause. Even the West isn’t that one-sided when judging the situation in Caucasus; especially since Saakashvili’s reputation seems to be fading in many Western countries. Besides, it is totally ridiculous to talk about a “global coalition” against our country. Each country has its own interests, and very often it is Russia that helps ensure them. Finally, the power of veto at the UN Security Council gives us the possibility to prevent any attempts to give anybody the idea to isolate Russia.

5. Would the West dare to to boycott Olympics in Sochi in 2014?

Well, they could. Everybody remembers the boycott of the Moscow Olympics in 1980. But we still have another six years. Besides, they should worry about the London Olympics in 2012 instead…

6. Should we expect a new armaments race?

The process of developing new weapons (whether you call it armament race or advancement of military technology) never stopped for a moment, even after the collapse of the USSR. It’s just that in the USA the process has been faster than in our country.

The richer we become the more means can we provide to reinforce our defense. In the end, the notorious “new thinking” in international affairs didn’t start working. In this world we still respect the strongest one, especially because truth is always protected by power.

7. Will Russian bank accounts held abroad be frozen?

Just recently, the Washington Post has published an article calling for thorough inspection of bank accounts of the Russia’s elite and asking to keep an eye on the businesses of those who have strong connections with Russia’s leaders.

“Checking accounts is of course permitted and in fact necessary, especially on suspicion of financing of terrorism or drug mafia; especially if a certain account or a bank transfer seems suspicious, it is considered common practice” — states the director of department of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev. However, in our case they have no such ground, so there is no reason to worry. Think of it as an emotional outburst from the USA.

The USA won’t be able to freeze our Stabilization Fund either. After all, we’ve been investing in their state too. What will the USA do? Refuse to pay and break their own obligations? In this case, sorry, but America will go bankrupt. Why should Americans destroy their own lives just because of their anger towards Russia.

8. So what should we expect from the US Dollar?

The USA could put Russia under macroeconomic pressure. Taking down their shares from our stock market would be enough. Actually, that is exactly what the foreign investors are doing after reading the threatening articles in the Western papers.

“It could happen, that the exchange rate RUB 27 = US$ 1 will remain only in our memory” – suggests Igor Nikolav. There is a number of essential factors that could weaken our national currency; for example inflation or slow investment activities. Of course, certain developments and the threat of isolation worsen the situation.

However, there won’t be any sudden collapses. After all we’ve put aside about US$ 600 billion. But no matter how great our financial backup is, if in just a week of War in South Ossetia Russia spends US$ 16 billion (the central bank has spent this amount to prevent the rouble from falling), we won’t hold out for too long. However, as long as the Dollar is growing, Igor Nikolav believes that in about a month a US§ 1 will cost RUB 26.

As to the stock market, it will continue to fall as long as Russia and the USA continue to argue, but sooner or later it will recover. After all our companies are quite expensive.

9. Won’t the import goods disappear from our stalls?

“It is very unlikely that anybody would stop exporting or importing, at the moment. After all, it’s hard cash. The worst that could happen would be freezing important co-projects” – explains the director of the Russian economic school, Sergei Guriev.

The West won’t stop importing to Russia either. Look, their food isn’t that cheap, and where would they get new market outlets? It wasn’t a coincidence that the WTO made us accept the import of ”Bush’s Legs” and the meat from abroad. As a result, the pressure from these import products has disturbed our cattle breeding business.

Anyway, why would the USA subsidize their manufacturers, but forbid us to do the same. Then again, it’s not like we have to fulfill any obligation to WTO that in the end, we didn’t even agree to.

“To put it mildly, we were tricked”, explains the minister of agriculture Alex Gordeev. “Now we will slowly reduce the amount of imported chicken, and pork, replacing it with our own product. We are talking about hundreds of thousands tons, here”.

To stimulate our manufactures, the government’s agriculture commission decided to pay our farmers an additional RUB 102 billion: 39.5 will be paid out this year and in the next year, farmers will receive 21 billion. The main thing is that we don’t overestimate our abilities and that the money does actually reach its intended recipients.

10. Could the West say “no” to our resources?

The major components of Russian export are oil, gas, coal and wood. What’s more, these are our main sources of export earnings. Russia is a raw material-producing country – you can’t help it. We sell the whole world our natural resources.

Obviously, nobody will be able to do without our exports. Remember the panic that broke out in Finland and Sweden after Russia imposed heavy export taxes on wood. The Europeans wouldn’t like to freeze in the winter, and for now there’s no alternative to Russian oil and gas. The thought of serious sanctions against Russia is therefore ridiculous – it’s Europe, with their double talk and all, that should worry that Russia could turn their back on them and impose an embargo. Asian countries like China, Japan and South Korea will gladly buy Russian oil.