Obama-Erdogan Meeting: Don’t Mention Genocide

Turkish Ambassador Namik Tan, who had been pulled back home to protest the passing of the Armenian genocide resolution by the U.S. House of Representatives’ Foreign Relations Committee in March, has returned to Washington. Prior to his departure, Tan spoke to the reporters in regards to the cause of his retreat and stated, “The message has been received and comprehended by the addressees.”

Tan mentioned that Ankara is satisfied by the assurance received by the U.S. and added his hopes for a continued positive atmosphere between the two countries. As a result of this statement, we will have to draw the conclusion that, at least for the current year, the Armenian genocide crisis between Turkey and the U.S. has been bypassed.

We say “at least for the current year” because the U.S. administration is not able to vouch for which bills will see the floor of Congress and which won’t. Thus, it is not possible to say that, “the U.S. Armenian genocide bills are over.”

That is why it may be helpful for Tan to be prepared for next April and pack up his suitcase in case of an urgent trip to Ankara. Under current circumstances, the question of “What is the assurance received from Washington?” comes into mind. The answer lies in Tan’s response. Tan had talked about the fact that, “the addressees have received and comprehended the message.” It is obvious that the Turkish government’s addressee is the Obama administration, not the U.S. Congress. The reason for Ankara being fired up was because of a late, last minute intervention by President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Ankara believes that the resolution would not have passed by a single vote if the administration had acted in a timely manner. We can conclude from Tan’s statement that when the resolution is once again on the agenda, the Obama administration will act “rather timely and effectively.” In the meanwhile, we would have to assume that it has been guaranteed that President Obama will not be using the word “genocide” during his speech on April 24. Nonetheless, after all the uproar and the protest by pulling back our ambassador, for Obama to pronounce that specific word would be a real diplomatic fiasco. Since President Obama is well aware of the situation, he would not let this happen.

Moreover, as I have mentioned in my previous articles, we believe that it is not possible for Obama to use the word genocide. However, similar to last year, there is a possibility that he may “define the term genocide without actually using the word.” When all is said and done, this does not bother Ankara at all. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Erdogan stated that he would be making the trip to Washington for the Nuclear Security Summit. In our opinion, it was a mistake for him to initially declare that he would not be able to attend as a result of the Armenian bill. Erdogan’s remarks were once again the proof that he was confusing apples with oranges. Even if he were upset with Obama, he would still attend the summit, but avoid a one-on-one meeting.

In summary, Erdogan, who is not fond of diplomacy, put himself in a tough spot and had to eventually backtrack. The opposition (in Turkey) is naturally taking full advantage.

It is for certain that Erdogan will have to pass a tough diplomatic test in Washington. As a result of the latest developments, we will be watching with interest how he will maintain Iran’s advocacy during the Nuclear Security Summit. Furthermore, according to various sources, there could be the possibility of an Obama-Erdogan-Sargsyan summit. If this meeting takes place, Obama will ask Ankara not to affiliate the signed protocols relating to Armenia with the Qarabagh provisions. If the speculated assurances about the Armenian resolution had actually been given by the U.S. administration, Erdogan would apparently have a soft spot. It is hard to estimate what kind of vibe will be escalating following the meeting between President Sargsyan and Prime Minister Erdogan.

When looked at from this standpoint, it can be seen that the U.S. visit will be a formidable one for Erdogan.