Bad News for Obama

The rise of the tea party movement has recently become the most important political movement of the United States. It involves a rare combination of individualism and conservatism that expresses a complete rejection of government intervention (very peculiar to American tradition), while not paying attention to party differences.

The rise of the tea party is the best most recent political movement in the United States, an occurrence that few predicted after the big 2008 election that put the Democrats in power in Washington.

It deals with a rare mixture of individualism and conservatism that expresses a total rejection of any form of the government intervention characteristic of American tradition, but without regard to party lines. However, based on the polls, the tea party movement could represent an unforeseen Republican victory in November’s elections.

At least that’s what various recent surveys have found. Albeit with differing numbers, pollsters do not rule out the possibility that Republicans will once again regain power in the House of Representatives within two years after losing the country’s presidency, just as they did in 1994.

Projections from Gallup indicate that Democrats can keep their majority in the House (257 out of 435 seats) as long as at least 48 percent of their members are ready to vote for their candidates. But at the present moment, this figure accounts for more than 44 percent of the House, which in reality gives the Democrats between 175 and 197 seats, under the 218 seats needed to maintain a majority, according to analyst David Paul Kuhn of the organization RealClearPolitics.

The approval of health care reform appears to be of little help to the government. This so-called success of President Barack Obama’s administration is not enough to motivate the base of Democratic voters, but on the other hand, it fuels the political fervor of the Republicans (48 percent of Republicans are active voters versus 30 percent of Democrats).

Success That Does Not Add Up

Not even Obama’s own figures can help the situation, adds Kuhn. Even after the success of the health care reform plan and the disarmament agreement with Russia, Obama’s approval rating is approximately 45 percent, a number that historically indicates election losses for the presidential party, in the same way that occurred in 1994 with Bill Clinton.

In any case, underneath political opinions, there appears to be a generalized rejection of the White House, and a hope that “all of them must go” in a civilized manner. Gallup reveals that only 28 percent of pollsters approve of the reelection of their lawmakers this year, versus 40 percent who were surveyed on the same issue during the 1994 and 2006 mid-term elections.

It is clear that such a nuisance will do nothing else but weaken the party who since 2008 has had the greatest power in the Union.