China Should Learn from America’s Example and Rise Peacefully

China has the second largest economy today, and America is the most developed country in the world. America is a critical factor in determining whether or not China can rise peacefully. If China and America are at peace, then the world will be peaceful. If China and America fight, then the world structure will be in turmoil, and it will be difficult for China to rise peacefully. China should do this with as little cost as possible and try to guarantee a peaceful rise to power, just as America peacefully rose to power.

Isolationism or Aggression?

In history every great power has chosen to use aggressive strategies to rise to power, which has inevitably caused conflicts, war, great costs and even defeat. For example, Germany and Japan chose a risky, aggressive foreign policy, which resulted in pain and destruction. America took another direction and adhered to isolationism while it rose to power. In this way, it avoided disputes with the great powers in Europe. Since America rose to power peacefully, it took on the smallest costs. It avoided the destruction that affected 40 percent of the land owned by European imperial powers, as well as a total war. Therefore, as America rose and became the leader of the world, it would not abandon its isolationist strategy. Most people think that America’s isolationist policy was decided on because of its special geographic location. Actually, that was not the case; America consciously chose to adopt that strategy. In the beginning of America’s history, its first president, George Washington, stated in his farewell address that he opposed “permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world.” This later became America’s unchanging policy for generations to come. America was one of the victors of World War I and delivered the Fourteen Points to prepare to walk on the international stage. However, Congress would not approve the Fourteen Points, so America returned to its isolationist strategy. Even after it won World War II, it decided to withdraw its troops and return to America. America only gave up its isolationist policy after the Cold War erupted.

Why Does America Abide by Its Isolationist Policy?

In fact, this policy is used for self-protection. First of all, it helped America to not attract the attention of Europe’s great powers, causing Europe to be less vigilant about America’s rise to power.

In this respect, China’s policy to conceal its strength and bide its time is comparable to America’s isolationist policy. In truth, as he was conceiving China’s future, Deng Xiaoping created two major policies to help China rise to power. One was to continue the opening and reform policy for the next 100 years, and the other was to continue its policy of concealing its strength and biding its time, although this policy was not specified for 100 years. Since China has adhered to these two principles for the past 30 years, it has integrated into the global economy, developed at a breakneck speed, and became the world’s second largest economy — at the same time benefiting from a relatively peaceful international environment. In the future, then, should China give up its policy of concealing its strength and implement a new plan? Or should it continue to conceal its strength and bide its time, making it its own well-intentioned isolationist myth? This is exactly what nearby countries are anxious about, and they are all paying close attention.

A Nation of Shopkeepers or a Country with a Strong Military?

Every rising power has to expand its weapons supply after its country has increased its strength in order to become a major military power. But this intensifies the conflicts between old and new powers, causes citizens to suffer and incites war. In contrast with this tendency, America chose to become a nation of shopkeepers during its rise to power. It developed its economy and made trade its focus, spending less time on traditional military security issues and more time on money and commerce. Supporters of Alexander Hamilton believed that developing the economy was a good way to be involved in the international system because an economy-based international system could avoid the zero-sum game of the security-based system. Thanks to this policy, America focused on developing its economy and took advantage of the Second Industrial Revolution. During World War II, it became a prime source of soldiers for Europe’s democracies; after the war, it became the wealthiest nation in the world.

As it rises, China should remember to emphasize the economy, using trade and integration with the global economy to seek global cooperation and mutually beneficial situations. It should not emphasize traditional national security issues. Furthermore, even though China has become the second largest economy in the world, it has to deal with the following pressures: The average GDP per person is still ranked 100th in the world, the development in western China and eastern China is grossly unbalanced, and China’s prosperity may or may not be sustainable. China’s objective should be to become a powerful country of rich citizens.

To Unite with America or to Protest Against America?

Every great country that rises to power will be pressured by the original great countries; this intensifies conflict and sometimes causes war. If the rising country is not suppressed by the original great powers, it will replace those powers. Great Britain was the natural enemy of America while it was rising, but America chose to cooperate with Great Britain and to contend with the other great European powers. During most of America’s history, Great Britain was the main element of the global economic order. As the basis of the international system, it could greatly affect America’s political system and economic benefits. Furthermore, Great Britain could inflict more harm on America than any other country. As it was rising, America had to choose between allying with the countries of mainland Europe against the weakening Great Britain or standing with Great Britain to maintain the international balance of power. America ultimately chose to stand with Great Britain. As President Thomas Jefferson said, “Great Britain is the nation which can do us the most harm of any one, or all on earth; and with her on our side we need not fear the whole world.” Although Great Britain is arrogant and extremely ambitious, it is a relatively safe ally. Furthermore, once America allied with Great Britain, it could become a long-term free rider. For a whole century, it enjoyed strong national security and a global market.

Similarly, China is facing a choice at it rises: Should it ally with America or protest against it? America is the current leader of the world system and an important external factor that will help determine whether or not China will rise to power peacefully. Following China’s rise, Sino-U.S. relations have become more and more international, which is not only important for those two countries, but it will also affect the world structure. When Sino-U.S. relations are peaceful, the rest of the world is peaceful. China’s rise is actually a result of its existing integration with the international economic system, which is led by America. China is the free rider and the benefactor of this system. Furthermore, Sino-U.S. relations will determine the relationships China has with other countries, especially China’s neighbors. If Sino-U.S. relations are peaceful, then it will be easier for China to get along with its neighbors and resolve issues. In truth, Sino-U.S. relations have always been swinging between cooperation and confrontation. There are factors which tend to help both sides cooperate, as well as factors which antagonize the two countries. Currently, Sino-U.S. relations and the situation in Asia as a whole have reached a turning point, due to naval exercises in the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea. In regard to these events, China should be cool and collected. It should think twice about how it can ensure a peaceful rise with the smallest cost. To put it another way, China should consider how it can make this relatively peaceful international environment last even longer. Since China’s goal is not to be the best or the second best, but rather to develop, the most crucial point is that China needs a relatively peaceful diplomatic environment.

Core Interests or Common Interests?

Every rising power must consider its core interests, demand changes in the original order, and require more and more land as its power grows. This naturally causes contradictions, conflicts and wars. In regard to this, America took a different route to its rise to power. It mostly advocated common interests: After World War I, it drew up the Fourteen Points to make a foundation for the world order, and after World War II, it advocated the United Nations. Supporters of President Woodrow Wilson advocated self-determination, democratic government, collective security, opposing colonialism and opposing war. In this way, Wilsonists supported a common and not a special idealism, and no race, individual or country could reproach them in terms of principle. Therefore, America was more inclusive, well-received by the people and accepted by many countries. America’s foreign policy had enormous strength precisely because supporters of Woodrow Wilson used this advantage. This strategy was particularly useful for making friends and influencing other countries. Even though sometimes it was a facade, it’s always better to wear an outrageous outfit than to be naked.

All countries act in their own self-interest, but others will oppose countries that try to optimize their power and security. Win-win situations are the only way to gain support and the only way for a country to peacefully rise to power. Therefore, China must develop its interests in line with the rest of the world and make its interests consistent with those of other countries. China must integrate its interests with the rest of the world and create mutually beneficial situations. On the one hand, its own interests must be in accordance with basic sovereignty and international law; on the other hand, they should be in accordance with a set of ideals such as the democratization of international governance and opposing the concentration of powers as had occurred earlier in the West. In this way, China’s rise will receive support and ultimately be possible. America was successful because it used to have ideals; moreover, America is declining because it has lost its former ideals.

Throughout history, power continually shifts from one country to another, and power always shifts after a war. This is guided by instinct, and it is the tragedy of all great powers. But if humanity worked a little more intelligently, it could avoid such a great cost. Moreover, the final result would be very different. America’s rise was relatively peaceful, and its costs were very low. This is in large part due to its luck, the fact that it received God’s blessing and its location. However, one should still consider the strategy America used to rise to power. As Walter Russell Mead said in his book, “Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How it Changed the World”: “The more I study the history of American foreign policy, the more deeply convinced I become that our national foreign policy tradition has much to teach us. We don’t just draw lucky cards; we also play the game well. Over two hundred years we have developed our own unique style, which suits us. Certainly it has enabled us to become the richest and most powerful nation in history of the world.” Now it’s China’s turn.