The CIA and NSC Debated the “Shift of Axis” in Turkish Foreign Policy

Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoglu, fervently rejects the claim that Turkish foreign policy has undergone an “axis shift.” Yet, his denial notwithstanding, the international community believes that some things have indeed changed in Turkey. The most recent and striking indicator of the West’s concerns took place in Washington last week when Turkey experts from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), National Security Council (NSC), and academia debated the question, “where is Turkey headed?” The organization of such a meeting should be enough to demonstrate how the West finds Turkey critical. Let’s see what they said about Turkey in that meeting…

The “axis shift” in Turkish foreign policy has been hotly debated for some time now. Whenever either Davutoglu or Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is asked questions about it, they both staunchly reject such an axis shift in Turkish foreign policy; sometimes they even get angry at such questions. They keep reiterating that “the axis in Turkish foreign policy has not shifted…Turkey is not turning its back on anything, Turkey is not going anywhere. Our priorities are always the same.” The West remains unconvinced. When we ask, for example, Foreign Minister Davutoglu if there are problems with the Obama administration, he says that “Turkish-American relations are good. There is consultation even on issues related to Israel though there are still misunderstandings at the American Congress.”

The West is taking the “axis shift” claim seriously. At a minimum, they are watching the developments with deep wariness and concern. No matter which western capital you visit these days, or which conference or seminar you attend on Turkish foreign policy, the same questions are asked repeatedly: Where is Turkey going? Is Turkey leaving the West?

If these questions are asked so often, this must be a sign of how the West perceives our actions. This means that either we are failing to tell them what is actually going on in Turkey or some things are really changing. Do not forget, it is not what you do but what you are perceived to be doing that matters.

They Tried to Understand Turkish PM Erdogan

The most important meeting concerning the purported “shift of axis” argument was held in Washington about 10 days ago. The American intelligence community gathered and they debated the orientation in Turkish foreign policy. In the words of one participant, they tried to understand “what Erdogan’s Turkey is.” I asked him if they could grasp what Turkey is and he replied negatively. They must have analyzed Turkey with the outmoded Cold War parameters, I thought. Some of the evaluative sentences in the meeting, as I learned, were “Turkey is more democratic yet less secular…The religiosity is increasing in Turkey…They are after an adventure…”

I should draw your attention to the participants of the meeting: The CIA and NSC, which are the two foremost intelligence organizations in the U.S., and also some academics who are experts on Turkey. The participants debated what the Erdogan-Davutoglu duo could be pursuing and where the Turkish ship is sailing toward. I asked my informant if they arrived at any conclusion at the end of the meeting and he responded that “nobody understands Erdogan fully. Some say that Erdogan is being very pragmatic and not acting religiously while some others claimed that politics and religion are getting more and more intertwined…”

“Turkey Is Turning Into a ‘Stray Bullet’”

I found most interesting to hear that those people speaking for the CIA read the Turkish picture better. The CIA people underlined how important Turkey’s relations with the U.S. are for PM Erdogan. I have been told that “…there is a general concern. Everyone acknowledged that the former structure of the relationship between Turkey and the U.S. is gone. What the new line of that relationship should be was discussed. We tried to understand Erdogan. Various scenarios were raised…” But what exactly are the steps Turkey has taken to cause that much concern in Washington? As you can all guess, it is Turkey’s souring relations with Israel, that have taken a nosedive in recent months, and its stance on the issue of the Iranian nuclear program. The Marmara flotilla incident was also singled out as a big mistake.

Let’s not forget that the participants of this meeting are the ones that shape American foreign policy in the mid and long term. Also we should know that the views voiced during that meeting are likely to be expressed in the Congress, administration and even the American media soon. My informant said that “…Davutoglu’s zero problems with neighbors policy is not understood…Turkey wants to play big but their fingers can get caught in the fire while doing so and Turkey tends to act more and more as a stray bullet…” When he also mentioned the dominant concern in the meeting was about Turkey’s independent foreign policy moves, everything became even clearer in my mind.

Washington cannot digest the fact that the Erdogan-Davutoglu duo has pursued a far more independent foreign policy than other Turkish governments and they have done so without consulting with the U.S. on various issues. Hence, either we find better ways of explaining to them what we are doing or we’d better get ready for a potential train crash.