Sino–U.S. Relations: Stepping Down to a New Low

Taking it out on China, typical in U.S. politics

Sino–U.S. relations took an unusual turn during early 20th century and early 21st century. In the 20th century, America saw opportunities in China because of its huge market, large population and weak national strength, where America could sell its products easily and introduce its religious beliefs. China at that time needed America’s help to get stronger. Now in the 21st century the situation is more or less the same — America still regards China as a rising big market with an abundant labor force where America can sell its products easily, but it has begun to yell that China is robbing it of its jobs, and for this China should shoulder more international responsibilities.

Because of this special relation, China has always been played as a card in the hands of American politicians during election seasons. After the Marco Polo Bridge incident in 1937, America’s then Democratic President Roosevelt absurdly claimed that America must keep away from Japan like it was an infectious disease. Next year in the midterm election, the Republicans condemned Roosevelt for his belligerence toward Japan and took quite a few seats in Congress away from the Democrats.

Take another example. The Democratic candidate in the presidential election in 1980 reproved Republican President Reagan about the establishment of the diplomatic relationship with China and raised an outcry on his policy of resuming the relationship once elected. This time, however, is quite different. With the midterm election approaching, candidates from both parties are slandering and vilifying China in order to gain support and beat each other in the election. This has raised indignation among Chinese media.

So, how shall we see America’s anti-Sino grand chorus in the 2010 midterm election?

I think we should be proud. This is not to say that we should adopt the blind attitude of “The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” but we can see this as an opportunity to experience the shocking effect of China’s rising-up from another perspective. Many Americans do not believe that a socialist country with China’s characteristics can create the second largest economic entity in the world and has a good chance to surpass America.

The candidates in the presidential election who picked on China were probably just letting out their confusion, gloom and even fear. In old days, every time an American politician sang against China, at most they just boasted about ideological differences, but now they are really worried: how can a country with an ideology and a political system so different from a great country like America find fault with Washington, D.C.?

The return of the conservatives is America’s tragedy

In the face of this grand anti-Sino chorus, I think we should first remain calm. The presidential election is all about winning. A politician would use any trick to make himself the winner of the election. When they realized that they could win votes by finding faults with China, why should they let such a great campaign tool go to waste? History taught us, however, that there is a world of difference between politics during an election campaign and politics after the winner has taken office — it will be a phoenix’s feathers and a unicorn’s horn if a promise or a catchword during the election becomes true policies after the run.

For instance, after Reagan was sworn in, he did not only forget to take harsh measures toward China as promised, but quite contrarily he signed a third communiqué on restricting arms sales to Taiwan with the Chinese government. Take another example. Mr. Clinton also forgot to keep his promise after the election. Instead, he abolished the law that linked human rights in China with trade and finished the negotiation on China’s entry into the WTO, making China a new number in the global market.

Second, we should learn to see things in comparison. The major reasons that American politicians attack China are the slow economic recovery, gloomy manufacturing, high unemployment and the lack in national bonds. They do not try to find the deep-seated reasons for such a strait, but instead they simply blame China’s rising-up for America’s slip as to gain immediate political returns. The world is flat, but economic growth is not a straight line. It is apparently a shortsighted and opportunist tendency to find fault with China. If an anti-Sino politician wins the election, he will generate troubles for China in the short term, but in the long term, it might turn out favorably. For example, when labor-intensive and environmentally unfriendly manufacturing jobs relocate from China to less developed countries, will America promote its own manufacturing sector again? Americans who lost their jobs due to manufacturing moving offshore are politically passionate conservatives who are less educated and lack knowledge in the high tech sector. If they return to America’s mainstream with the help of their newly elected politicians, then it will not only be America’s tragedy but may also be the real start of the America’s downfall. In comparison, we feel lucky that our government is not influenced by such political games in which people are anxious to achieve quick success and get instant benefits, so that our government is able to make decisions calmly that will benefit the people and the country.

No need to react too radically to election promises. A new Congress will assume office in January 2011, and soon Obama will have to start his preparation for the 2012 presidential election. Though the Republicans, more favored by China, will take control of the House of Representatives, they are not who they used to be. Many of them are now either angry politicians or pawns of the Tea Party movement, whose main political requests are small government, strong national defense, tax exemption and low debt. The ideas of strong national defense and low debt that they have been trying so hard to push forward can be turned into laws and policies that are unfavorable to China.

And Obama, who used to be quick in mind and prudent in decision, is now turning into a devil politician with only quick success and instant benefit on his mind, and he is far too busy with being re-elected to care about what Congress is doing with the law. He will welcome Premier Hu’s visit next year, and America will not draw a long face and fall out with China (for example, the Department of the Treasury recently delayed China’s Currency Manipulation Report). It is certain, however, that Sino–U.S. relations will step down into a new low.

All in all, America’s presidential election is a life or death political grapple for politicians, and when candidates are facing a to-be-or-not-to-be challenge in their political careers, naturally there is no taboo protecting China. It is entirely unnecessary for us to take their promises in election as the political plank in their terms. So there is no need to react too radically, puff up an anti-U.S. flame, activate the anti-U.S. mechanisms or even put those candidates onto the blacklist and settle scores later.

In the meantime, we must keep a straight head and two things in mind: One, China has already become an important factor in America’s politics and is no long merely a strawman target in elections like before. A slipping America will not maintain a calm and pretty face to a rising China, and America’s worry and fear will not clear soon. Contrarily, they will only get stronger and stronger with the increase of China’s national strength. Two, as long as America’s economy remains mired, Sino–U.S. relations will be at odds.

The 2010 midterm election will not only alter America’s politics but also will deeply influence America’s diplomacy, especially with China. In general, the communication and mutual benefit between different ideologies in the past should have been the best propeller to maintain and deepen the Sino–U.S. relationship. With the ebb and flow of the national strengths of two nations, the clash of different ideologies, however, like pouring oil over fire, has led Sino–U.S. relations onto an eventful track.

At present China is not strong enough to turn a blind eye to America’s concerns and requests. But one thing is for sure: America cannot go alone without China, and China cannot develop without America.