Pakistani Anxiety over American Move to “India First”

U.S. President Barack Obama worried the representatives’ ears when he said in front of the Indian Parliament that India today is a global power and a strategic partner of the United States, and that it was not out of charity that India was the first stop of his trip.

Obama knows that his predecessor, President George W. Bush, sought protection in his large popularity in India, even making it a legitimate nuclear state. Likewise, Obama has chosen to follow in his footsteps, supporting India’s request to join the U.N. Security Council as a permanent member.

And despite his knowledge that the two countries are not in complete agreement on nuclear arms, Obama said, “Even as every nation has the right to peaceful nuclear energy, every nation must also meet its international obligations — and that includes the Islamic Republic of Iran [a reassurance to the Iranian regime, that these words are not tied to Iran only]. And together, we can pursue a … world without nuclear weapons.”

In essence, the visit was meant to open agreements and deals to revitalize the American economy, while, with a view to strategy, balancing the Chinese. In the American view, India is seen as the place where jobs are snatched out of their hands. In light of this, Obama and India’s Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, offered their pledge to reassure that India will not rob jobs from America. And Obama said that military agreements, and even customary trade deals, will create American jobs. A major nuclear agreement contracted by President Bush with India worth $150 billion was manufactured entirely on American soil.

Nearby, Pakistan surely kept its eyes on the trip with anxiety. In the recent past, American politics were focused on Pakistan first; now India has usurped the spotlight in Washington. The relationship with Pakistan is a crucial point for America in Afghanistan and the war on terror. After endless submission, India will strive for a more comprehensive relation of wider extent.

It is always said that there is nothing more important to the Pakistani military than what happens in India. When someone like President Obama arrives to visit, it stirs up the timidity of endless submission. During the visit, it tried to move beyond this concern, even claiming that its exclusion from the trip does not bother the country. Pakistan remembers that former president Bill Clinton visited for just a few hours, while he spent days in India. Today, Obama said that he would visit Pakistan in the coming year. Perhaps this settled it partially, but the relationship between India and America has become friendly, and Pakistan feels left out of the loop and that anything that might come between India and America will affect and concern it.

There is also China, which keeps an eye on Obama’s travels. India shares his doubts with regard to the growing Chinese penetration in the region. The military and strategic leadership in India sees that China surrounds India, just as Pakistan sees that India surrounds Afghanistan. The Indian government, however, sees that dialogue with China, especially concerning the border questions, is the fundamental issue.

If we look past the trip, Obama might speak of a permanent seat in the Security Council for India, but he will also address Iran. The Americans and the Indians differ in what they consider important regarding Iran. India’s relation with Iran is strong; it does not call for a separation. In the future, maybe Iran will create a conflict between the sides.

With regard to the export controls that Obama said he would lift: There will be many in India, especially in the defense field, waiting for this to come true, since former president Bush promised it. Indian companies are still waiting.

There is also the reliable American policy facing Pakistan. Obama said that the security sanctuaries in Pakistan were not considered tolerable since November 2008, and the leaders of Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Good) and other terrorist organizations are spreading in Pakistan with complete invulnerability.

Singh said in his press conference, in response to Obama’s call to improve and develop Indian-Pakistani relations, that dialogue with Pakistan depends on what will resolve the Mumbai attacks.

Now, with regard to America itself, many Americans see that strengthening the relationship with New Delhi is a crucial part of Obama’s endeavors to preserve America’s military and economic position in the world. They see what Obama has undertaken in India, as well as Indonesia, Korea and Japan. He explains to them that America became reflective in the journey after Iraq and Afghanistan, that the strategic map of Asia concerns them, and that they consider the emergence of India as a military and economic power preferable to what America and the West experienced after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Robert Kaplan, a strategic expert specializing in Asian issues and author of several pieces on the region, explains to me that Obama’s trip to South Eurasian countries helps these countries’ circumstances for managing the rise of China, but there is a problem: He cannot escape the burdens of Afghanistan any time soon. India wants it that way. Kaplan says that the fighting in Afghanistan will continue up to the last American soldier, because India benefits from Hamid Karzai’s government more than America does. At the same time, America is looking beyond Afghanistan to the widest map of the countries of Eurasia and to several coming decades. Kaplan assures that the American-Indian strategic partnership is absolutely necessary. He sees that India itself is claiming the American-Indian axis to neutralize China and that this axis will not manifest. India will become the owner of three of the world’s naval weapons, and it will not be able to balance China on its own without the introduction of American sea and air weapons in the Indian Ocean. But China is building railroads and ports, while the U.S. has not considered such construction, and it sees clearly that the pace is gradually slowing. Does this really mean that America is becoming a smaller partner of India by the day?

Kaplan says this day will come soon. In 2030, it is likely that the number of Indian military ships in the Persian Gulf will exceed that of American military ships. Even this does not mean that America will become a small partner, except in the latter part of the 21st century.

On the other hand, Kaplan warns against betting on the strength of stability in East Asian countries in the coming decades. He says that there was a good security climate, because the American naval and air forces were protecting the West Pacific Ocean from the Indian Ocean in the American lakes. This enabled the countries there, including China, to alleviate their economic concerns, but with American penetration that had begun to die. Then a stable climate might become unstable.

And what should America do to cope with Asia? First, it must reform its economy and regulate its health care and taxation. The second imperative is to try to avoid getting entangled in ground wars in any part of the world, because the victims of ground wars swallow concentration and productive efforts for stability.

But where should America turn now? Kaplan gives an example: The Royal British Navy began to retreat in 1895, but this did not prevent Britain from saving the world twice in six decades with two world wars, though with some assistance. The country, after it reached its peak, needed nine decades to decline gradually. This means that the crucial role of America in foreign policy is still ahead of itself. Additionally, it is possible for the people to criticize America as they see, but in terms of the military issue at least, the world here is united.

In summary, the case of its regression into itself may be exaggerated. What a notion!

And while President Obama continues his trip, landing in Indonesia, British Prime Minister David Cameron arrives as the head of a major economic delegation to … China!