What Will Become of China’s Once Strong Opposition to a U.S. Aircraft Carrier?

What will China’s reaction be to U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington’s stationing in the Yellow Sea? The Chinese government has not yet made its position known, but Chinese analysts generally agree that China will “clearly state its opposition” to the move. Nevertheless, the intensity of the opposition and resistance is expected to be lower after last March’s sinking of the South Korean navy ship Cheonan.

Towards the beginning of August, as the United States announced plans to move the USS George Washington into the Yellow Sea in the aftermath of the Cheonan sinking, the Chinese government repeatedly expressed its strong opposition. Jiang Yu, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stated that China has “made its position clear several times on the joint U.S.-Korea military exercises,” adding that “we urge [the United States] to take into account our mixed interest and apprehension.” At the same time, China started its own military training exercises in Hae-Sang and Yuk-Sang, close to the Yellow Sea, as if to show its ability to quickly mobilize physical power in the region.

As a result the United States had delayed the repositioning of the George Washington, softening the tensions between the two countries. This would be short-lived though, as the recent North Korean attack on Yeonpyeong Island has reignited the security issues between the Unites States and China in the region.

On this point, Wang Linchang of the Chinese Asia Pacific Institute’s Korean Peninsula Research Society stated that, “because of the recent Cheonan incident, and taking public opinion into account, China is certain to make clear its opposition [to the United States’ recent move].” Professor Zhao Huji of the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party agreed, predicting that “while China will not physically oppose the entry of the aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea, it will certainly voice its objections.”

Beijing University Professor of Political Science Zhu Feng, in turn, weighed his words as he predicted that “the Chinese government will oppose this, but not as strongly as it did in August, in the wake of the Cheonan incident.” He stated that “North Korea’s attack on civilian targets is being considered an act of provocation in the inner circles of the government,” carefully adding that “China’s reaction will not play out the way that it did with the Cheonan incident.” China’s official position will be subject to some internal debate.

As this plays out, Chinese experts are eyeing with reservation the USS George Washington’s entry into the Yellow Sea as the element that will spark another stall in U.S.-China relations. However, Wang Linchang has stated that “it will suffice for China to officially oppose the USS George Washington’s military exercises in the Yellow Sea,” noting that “Since neither side wants a worsening of U.S.-China relations, there will be no outright confrontation.” Professor Zhu has said that “China knew of the planned entry of the U.S. aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea even before the Cheonan incident” and that “the probability of the worsening of U.S.-China relations is very small.”