Pulled Up Short

Barack Obama will not be mistaken if he thinks that fate is treating him in the same way it dealt with the squirrel in Ice Age, the cartoon movie. Every time he gets his claw tips on the acorn, an irresistible force yanks him back. In Mr. Obama’s case, the acorn is the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2008 presidential election, while the yanking force is Hillary Rodham Clinton. The Illinois Senator has good reason to believe he has virt ually clinched the prize. Although some major States are yet to hold primaries or caucuses, it is certain that he will retain the lead over his rival in terms of both popular votes and pledged delegates when the intra-party campaign comes to an end in early June. The catch is that Mr. Obama will most probably not be able to line up the 2,025 convention-goers needed to win the nomination — without a sizable section of the super-delegates swinging behind him. More than 300 of the 796 super-delegates seem to be sitting on the fence. Among those who have committed themselves, Mr. Obama has narrowed the lead that Ms Clinton established early on. A headcount of party bigwigs before the final convention vote has little meaning since they are allowed to switch allegiances up to that point. When the Democrats assemble in Denver in August, Mr. Obama must convince the party’s officials and elected representatives that he, not Ms Clinton, is the warrior who can down Republican John McCain in single combat on November 4, 2008.

Given the developments of the past few weeks, that task now appears more difficult. The trouble for Mr. Obama began with web video footage showing his pastor Jeremiah Wright in ballistic mode against “White America.” The man bidding to be the first black President regained whatever ground he had lost by delivering an exemplary and inspiring speech on race relations. But Mr. Obama then fell into a rhetorical trap while speaking about white working class voters, a block whose support will be crucial in the tests ahead. In his essentially accurate yet insensitively expressed view, these voters “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them” in order to overcome the bitterness wrought by their economic conditions. Ms Clinton and several commentators pounced on these remarks to charge Mr. Obama with elitism. The Pennsylvania primary of April 22 could provide an assessment of the damage wrought by these remarks. The Clinton camp can be counted on to do its worst to persuade white voters in this ‘Keystone State’ that if they support Hillary overwhelmingly, as happened in some primaries, she can make a last-ditch stand that she is the more electable candidate.