Afghanistan Experts: The Taliban’s Morale Remains Unbroken

Alex van Linschoten is an expert on Afghanistan currently working on a study of the Taliban’s relations to al-Qaida. Tagesspiegel reporter Martin Gerner interviewed him about the situation in Kandahar.

Gerner (GER): What’s your assessment of the situation in Kandahar?

Van Linschoten (VAN): The people are exhausted. The young are trying to get out of the city to live somewhere else. Last week, two government deputies were murdered. Anyone who works for the government is in grave danger. The Taliban warns the population not to cooperate with the government and seems to know pretty much what everybody is doing. The Afghan government and the American troops can’t protect everyone and nobody believes the current government has a real future or is even viable in its current form.

GER: How does the Taliban operate in the city?

VAN: An example: The Taliban has set up a so-called reconciliation committee. When anyone finds one of the infamous “night letters” warning the inhabitants not to cooperate with “the occupation” on his door, he’s told to make a complaint to the committee if he feels he has been unfairly accused. This is one way the Taliban tries to reach the hearts and minds of the people. On the other hand, there’s not as much a sense of ideology in Kandahar as one might suspect. Islam is a motivating factor for the insurgency, but my sense is that it’s not the main motivating factor here in the south. There are many other factors that motivate and define the people here, but Islam isn’t in first place.

GER: What do the people think of the deployment of international security forces in the south?

VAN: There are a variety of reasons that make the people skeptical. One hears, for example, that U.S. military commanders meet with village elders and tell them that if they don’t disclose where weapons and explosive caches are located, they will be forced to bombard the neighborhood. The people find that reminiscent of the days of Soviet Union occupation. The concept of collective public guilt is something forbidden by the Geneva Conventions concerning the protection of civilians in wartime.

GER: The United States claims they see positive developments in the south. Is the claim justified?

VAN: My impression is that the new ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) commander, General Petraeus, believes this war can be won militarily. He overestimates his capabilities and, at the same time, underestimates the ramifications of his actions on the insurgency and the Taliban. I don’t believe Petraeus takes credible interest in a negotiated settlement, nor that he sees the Taliban as a part of Afghan society.

GER: Was the strategy pursued by Petraeus’ predecessor, General McChrystal, more promising?

VAN: Compared to Petraeus, McChrystal seemed to assess things better, including the various ramifications given military actions might produce. The number of night operations is a good example. According to ISAF, they have dramatically increased under Petraeus and he has also resumed air operations. In November 2010, there were three times more bombing attacks compared to the previous year. That’s a dramatic escalation.

GER: Does that weaken the Taliban?

VAN: The night operations take their toll. Many Taliban have been killed or wounded, but their morale doesn’t appear to have suffered. They’re still capable of carrying out attacks or skirmishes. Their numbers don’t appear to have been basically reduced. They’ve suffered many setbacks but in the spring they’ll again be a force to be reckoned with.

GER: Analysts say the Taliban movement is on the brink of becoming more radical due to the intensity of the combat operations.

VAN: Certain things have become apparent: The number of beheadings, for example. That’s something new. And attitudes toward social authority have changed as shown by the murder of tribal elders, and likewise the way they communicate with the Taliban leadership in Quetta. There’s no more subservience. We’re seeing a fragmentation: The Taliban’s shadow governor doesn’t really have control over all factions in Kandahar. Many attacks aren’t ordered by Quetta but by smaller splinter groups. Many may be getting their orders from Pakistan. In general, there are more and varied voices within the movement.

GER: What does that mean for the future?

VAN: There are fears that a new type of Taliban could become established. One more given to international jihad commanded by young warriors who know only war and conflict and have no concept how things in Afghanistan were before the Soviets invaded. They don’t know the meaning of peace.