The Prophet Osama bin Laden

The American financial debacle and its effects on fanatics in the Muslim world

In case Osama bin Laden is still alive, he’s probably very happy these days. He’ll tell his followers, “Just look, our mortal enemy is on his deathbed.” They’ll all nod in agreement and hungrily continue gobbling up the news coming from the United States. They’ll greet every new market crash with the words “Allah is great!”

These days, as the USA continues to experience a crisis of gigantic proportions, Osama must really have the feeling that his prophecies have come true. More than a decade ago, he set out to conquer America and its allies in the Persian Gulf region, no more no less. It must have sounded like insanity at the time because the United States was at the zenith of power and Osama and his followers were little more than a band of fanatic murderers.

But today we’re seeing the rapid decline of the United States, a decline many consider irreversible. Osama has victory in his sights. This isn’t the place to debate whether that’s true or not, we’re merely acknowledging that this is how Osama bin Laden sees the situation. This is about taking a look inside the mind of a fanatic.

When al-Qaeda planned the attacks of September 11th, 2001, they had three goals in mind: first, to kill as many people as possible; second, to stage this mass murder in such a way as to get maximum media exposure; and third, to provoke the United States into retaliating. They accomplished their first two goals on the day of the attack, and the third goal was achieved three weeks later when the United States invaded Afghanistan. Here, the terrorists hoped to drain America’s lifeblood away. After all, one superpower had already been defeated on the battlefields of Afghanistan.

Soviet troops marched into Afghanistan in 1979 and were forced to withdraw in defeat 10 years later. Then, in 1991, the Soviet Union crumbled. Since then, the jihadists are convinced that they defeated their “axis of evil.” This conviction is widespread in Afghanistan and Pakistan – and it has become the basis of al-Qaeda’s strategy. What worked the first time will surely succeed again.

Of course, the Soviet Union didn’t perish because of their defeat in Afghanistan, and of course the mujahideen couldn’t have defeated the Red army without the massive help given them by the United States, but nonetheless, the victory over the Soviet military still has powerful propaganda effect on Islamic fanatics. What happens now that Osama bin Laden can claim that his prophecies were right, that it is possible to defeat “the great Satan?” One thing clear is that it will inspire his followers to continue their violent strategies.

But how is America’s dramatic weakness perceived in the Muslim world? What lessons do people there take from that? Do you think it might be time to topple the potentates who currently reign there because they’re supported by the United States? What forces has America’s decline unleashed in the Islamic world?

That’s what we have to watch for in the near future.