The Sorrows of Young Obama

Two years ago, Obama was a shining beacon. Today he limps from one defeat to the next.

Just a week ago, Obama announced he was a candidate for the presidency in 2012. It’s understandable if he didn’t appear confident, because he has nothing but burdens to contend with.

Obama’s approval ratings have been under the 50 percent mark for almost a year and a half. On Friday, he was barely able to avert a budgetary crisis, and the next test of power with the Republicans is fast approaching. There is no end to the number of risk factors lurking along the way. The economy isn’t exactly humming along yet. The wars in Afghanistan and Libya are going more badly than well. The Democratic Party’s liberal base is complaining. And above all, Obama — the charismatic candidate — has yet to develop a distinct image as president.

What explains Obama’s once-meteoric rise and now his seemingly unstoppable fall? Why, when he was such a successful candidate, does he now have to worry about re-election?

The Power of Rhetoric

The reasons for Obama’s rise and fall, of course, are numerous, but one reason seems to me to be particularly important: his rhetoric.

America tends toward the center-right. The word “responsibility” trips more easily from the voter’s tongue than does the word “solidarity.” Most Democrats, therefore, have adopted the language of Republicans as their very own. Bill Clinton won the presidency with Republican slogans that appealed to Republican voters. “It’s the economy, stupid.”

That strategy may be successful in the short term, but as a long-range tactic, it’s a huge “own goal” in that the Democrats never define their own values. They leave the rhetorical battlefield to the Republicans — and it’s that much harder to counter Republican slogans in the elections that follow.

Barack Obama recognized that. As a candidate, the reason he was so successful was that he purposely altered the political landscape instead of trying to fight his battles on the old, disadvantageous battlefields.

John McCain campaigned saying that he was for lowering taxes while claiming that Obama would raise them. Obama countered by saying he represented the future while McCain represented the past. McCain accused Obama of being a dreamer, and Obama countered by saying McCain fought only for his own supporters while Obama fought for the whole nation. And so on and so forth.

Obama’s rhetoric was politically brilliant. It was brilliant not because it was especially insightful or profound but because it simply embraced the entire rhetorical terrain. In this way, Obama was able to lay claim to deeply held American values as his own.

Obama’s Self-Censorship

That trick also helped him to celebrate some victories after his election as well. But perhaps because the Republicans grew desperate and began accusing him of being all talk and no action after his electoral triumph, he suddenly decided to go silent.

His inaugural speech was deliberately sober. He projected the image of a pragmatic technocrat during the debates over health care reform, citing the need to rein in increasing medical costs. And even now, during the ongoing battles over budget cuts, he plays the role of the non-partisan who seeks to achieve only unity — and whichever unity is seemingly unimportant.

The inescapable results? Republicans have regained 110 percent of their public opinion advantage.

Health care reform, for example, is unpopular because Obama never bothered to stress the moral basis for universal healthcare; nor did he use the image of a cute, blonde 9-year-old from Kansas who died because she had no health insurance. Instead, the public rejects his reforms because they fear so-called “death panels,” totally fictitious agencies who would supposedly have the power of life and death over grandmothers.

The debate over budget reform is also proceeding in a wrong-headed fashion, and it is by no means close to being decided. Next month, the House of Representatives has to either raise the country’s statutory debt limit or face immediate national bankruptcy. And by Oct. 1, a new budget for 2012 must be in place or else government employees and members of the armed forces will be furloughed without pay. The Republicans are already beating the drums with their old slogans: tax cuts, self-sufficiency and radical cutbacks to an already emaciated welfare state. Unless Obama opens his mouth very soon, he will have no option other than further capitulation across the board.

Obama Still Has Time

It’s not too late for Obama yet — at least, not completely. In the event he suddenly remembers why he was once so beloved, he may perhaps still be able to turn the American political mood around.

Obama can still give a great speech. Whether he has the courage to give that speech, however, seems increasingly doubtful.