On June 3, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama declared his victory in the party primaries and became the Democratic presidential nominee. Comments from CNN said that Obama became the first African-American in the history of the United States to win major votes in main political parties. This is also exactly what he called the "national decisive moment."
Shen Dingli, Executive Vice-President of China Fudan University International Institute, told to the "Huanqiu News" reporters that it can not be said that Obama's victory represents the racial progress within American society. Precisely, he won the primaries just because he seldom played this “race card." On the contrary, the failure of Hillary Clinton proved that she played her “husband card” too much.
In Shen’s opinion, after an eight-year republican rule, Americans are eager to seek "a major change." Because her husband is the former president, Hillary Clinton stepped onto the primary stage with extreme confidence. She, unlike the other candidates, did not have to raise funds since she was already quite familiar with many of the Super Delegates. But this self-confidence became a huge disadvantage in later primaries.
”As wife of former president, in essence, the American people are electing another ‘Clinton.' Therefore the changes in American society in future have become ‘predictable’ as well.” “On the other hand,” Shen said, young and inexperienced Obama may make the nation even worse. But he is also likely to lead the country to an "unexpectedly great direction." Obama's victory shows that the American people are willing to bear the "unknown future" that Obama will bring rather than Clinton’s "predicted one." Therefore, "Obama is not too strong. Instead, it is Hillary Clinton who is too weak."
As for the "one-on-one" election which Obama will soon face in the future with Republican presidential nominee John McCain, Shen pointed out that McCain's political experience before the election places him as “the strongest candidate." However, his weakness is also very obvious. On one hand, McCain is a little too old at the age of 72; on the other hand, McCain is politically very conservative on “national defense issues” which are most Americans’ greatest concern. He once claimed the "Garrison for 100 years" plan in Iraq for the American troops, which is likely to become a key factor in his losing a larger amount of votes.
What are the odds for Obama to win over McCain? Shen said that Obama's victory in the party primaries could not make certain that the American people really have ignored the factor of his race. There is a higher possibility that Obama may become the target of scandal exposure by his opponents. And his lack of governing experience for a superpower can create barriers to the presidency as well. "The polls in the past can only represent the past. Obama will have to face many 'real' problems," said Shen Dingli.
At the same time, Shen Dingli also believes that Obama does not rule out inviting Hillary Clinton as his VP in order to run together. But if he made such a decision, "he is not just helping out Hillary, but also helping himself.” "When Obama realized he cannot win this 'one-on-one' competition with McCain, he may need Hillary Clinton's experience and the votes. For Clinton, she may consider running for president again in the future and she may agree to be Obama’s VP," Shen said. "Currently, Clinton and Obama are still in 'positive interaction'."
As for the future China policy, Shen Dingli insisted that whoever, Obama or McCain, is successfully elected, their changes on U.S.-China policy will only be in some "specific manners". "In fact, the key to Sino-American relations progress lies in China’s own efforts. As long as China getting stronger, the U.S. President from any political party will not ignore its cooperation with China."