Shifting Sino-U.S. Relations

Li Wei, Assistant Director at the Sino-U.S. Relations Research Center at Tsinghua University and a doctor of international relations recently reported that in the last week of May, China received four groups of visiting U.S. government officials, including three congressional delegations and one special government envoy. It made that week what the Professor called, “a week of Sino-U.S. relations”. Ever since China began to reform it’s economic and social policies, American leaders have pressure the Chinese to meet U.S. standards of democracy and change. Could such outreaches by the new administration indicate a shift in this relationship?

Analysts say that in the first three months of the Obama administration, Sino-US relations have begun to pick themselves up from a recent all-time low. The U.S. government seems to be adopting a more humble attitude toward its neighbors across the Pacific and Sino-U.S. relations are undergoing a profound structural change as the gap between the two countries narrows and their relationship becomes more symmetrical.

Past presidents like Reagan, Bush or Clinton, required 7-8 months to find their footing with their Chinese counterparts- relations often required years to begin running smoothly and the trend will most likely hold true for President Obama. Both countries need a long-term “learning process” in order to stabilize relations- a lack of stability in the past has incurred a huge political price. However, in Obama’s first three months, Sino-U.S. relations have quickly reached higher ground-from the very beginning there has been a trend of warm interaction, a signal that a deep structural change is taking place.

Historically, China has needed the United States more than the U.S has needed China, but this pattern is undergoing major changes.

China has rapidly become less dependent on the U.S, while the U.S. demands on China have greatly increased and Americans lean increasingly on their Chinese partners. With China’s entry into the WTO and successful integration into the world market, the U.S, to a large extent, has lost the ability to constrain China on economic issues.

In contrast to recent decades, the U.S. now seeks help from China on a large number of issues. Under the circumstances of the current international financial crisis, the need for Chinese cooperation and assistance appears to be extremely urgent. China has played a key role in issues such as the growing threat from North Korea, the conflict in the Sudan and Iran’s nuclear development. Economically, the U.S. has backed away from their demand for a revaluation of the Yuan and urgently hopes China could help U.S get through the financial crisis.

In his speech in Peking University, Timothy Geithner repeatedly assured China that Chinese assets in the U.S. are safe and pleaded with China to continue to buy U.S treasury bonds. Such a self-effacing and deferential gesture is simply unprecedented coming from the United States. Moreover, Nancy Pelosi, who has vehemently adhered to her tough stance over the past 20 years, recently shifted her attitude towards China as well. Her speech at Qinghua University stressed the role of China in promoting international environment protection, pressing the point that cooperation and support from China is essential to the settlement of international environmental and development issues. This stands in stark contrast to prior commentary from Pelosi- before her open criticism of the Chinese government was a common occurrence, even her part of her regular routine.

Tang Xiaosong, a professor at the Guangdong University of Foreign Studies and the Director of The Research Center for International Security and Strategies expressed this opinion: The pattern of Sino-U.S. relations is indeed stealthily undergoing a change. Interaction between the U.S. and China has moved from the U.S. domination common prior to the financial crisis to an increasing American dependency on China.

As a matter of fact, the “economic symbiotic relationship” between China and America has already solidified prior to the financial crisis. American people need China’s cheap products. A consumption pattern reliant on cheap Chinese goods-and in which American consumers are unwilling to settle for prices higher than what China can offer- is firmly entrenched in the consumer psyche. Prior to the financial downturn, the economic dependencies were unequal. China was heavily dependent on the U.S market, while the U.S. had various import choices, and did not necessarily need goods “Made in China”. This type of global competition put tremendous pressure on Chinese exporters. After the financial crisis, the U.S. became increasingly passive in its trade relations with China and the advantages of American huge markets disappeared. In contrast, China became the “boss” of the U.S. overnight and the U.S. has adopted a humble, chastened trading position.

From the U.S. government’s point of view, the Obama administration is trying to find immediate solution to the current financial crisis; after examining the global situation, officials agreed that China is the only nation that can help the U.S. get through the difficulties. China is not only the top holder of U.S. debts, but also the country that suffers least from the financial crisis. Secondly, China has always been a country that has incited American envy and caution. To appeal for China’s help can be described as a strategy that has taken a great deal of time and effort, a strategy that kills two birds with one stone. On the one hand, it can also provide a bandage for the U.S. economy. On the other hand, by strengthening relations with China, it can prevent China’s holdings in the U.S. financial market from flowing into other countries so as to tip the economic scale back towards the United States.

The U.S administration seems to be extending an honest and needy hand across the oceans. But does this really mean that everything will change?