Former Vice President Dick Cheney has stated that John McCain lost to Barack Obama because he chose Sarah Palin…

Four years ago, I published a series of articles about the presidential elections in the United States. The cliché phrase became: “If elections were held today, Obama would win.” The same cannot be said today, as recent surveys give no definitive prediction. If Obama loses in November, it will be because voters are punishing him for not fulfilling any of his original promises: The economy has not improved, and all his promises of “hope” have been for nothing. In this way, Obama could be compared to the Mexican PAN (National Action Party).

Should Obama not be reelected, it will not be because Romney is a good candidate. Indeed, he is quite the opposite: Every time Romney takes a step in the right direction, he trips over himself. During his visit to the U.K., he criticized the organization of the Olympic Games, stating that the organizers should be concerned with the amount of mistakes that were made. The British do like to be criticized – especially by Americans. David Cameron, the prime minister, was quick to reply: “We are holding an Olympic Games in one of the busiest, most active, bustling cities anywhere in the world. Of course it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere.” This reference was a blatant knock at the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, which Romney managed in 2002. After such a scolding, the presidential hopeful was forced to eat his words and change his tune. London is ready after all.

As Obama’s record with Israel is less than stellar, Romney then visited the small Middle Eastern state, hoping to gain the sympathy of the Jewish American community. Romney is an old friend of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as they worked together on a consultancy group in 1970. Currently, Netanyahu is dedicated to spreading the most conservative Israeli ideas, including threats against Iran that go further than sanctions and diplomacy. Additionally, the Israeli prime minister has supported the insane notion of considering Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel, an idea that has been rejected by the international community, including the United States.

In an effort to break the survey tie, both candidates have increased the ferocity of their attacks. Romney theatrically declares that the country needs someone who truly believes in America. He hints that Obama is foreign and his policies equally so. Not backing down from this mudslinging, Obama has also decided to get his hands dirty. He knows that it is difficult to successfully counter the Republican claim that his four-year term has been a failure economically. Instead, Obama’s strategy focuses on attacking Romney on a personal level for being rich, being out of touch with the public’s real problems and for tax evasion. In one ad, the president appears (as provided by federal law) approving the following message: Romney is shown singing “America the Beautiful”, while lines of text contrast this display of nationalistic love with the Republican candidate’s fortune in the fiscal paradise of the Caiman Islands, as well as his company’s use of Mexican and Chinese workforces.

Both candidates have taken care not to touch on more sensitive issues, such as Obama’s race or Romney’s Mormonism. However, Obama has not shied away from showing Romney’s personal tax records, in which the Republican candidate declared $43 million in income but only paid 15 percent in tax. He truly uses every trick in the financial book to avoid taxes.

The presidential debates are on the horizon, at which point things will become clearer. The first debate will be held in Denver, the city that witnessed an attack on “Batman” moviegoers that left a trail of death and horror behind. In such a setting, the mandatory topic must be guns. Obama did not fulfill the promise he made during his campaign to limit their sale and regulate their use. In addition, he paid no attention to Mexico’s recent petition to limit arms, nor to President Calderón’s statement in Congress: “If you do not regulate the sale of these weapons in the right way, nothing guarantees that criminals here in the United States with access to the same power of weapons will not decided (sic) to challenge American authorities and civilians.”

Obama makes good speeches and is able to get himself out of tight spots, but has not set in motion a change in policy regarding the possession and use of guns. Romney, who is well aware of what effect gun control measures can have on voters, highlighted the fact that control through regulation is not effective. According to him, we must “change the heart of the American people” instead of making more laws. Obama has also gotten sentimental in recent days and sent a mass email to his followers announcing his 51st birthday: “Could be the last one I celebrate as president of the United States, but that's not up to me – it's up to you.”

I don’t know how effective these messages are in terms of securing the electorate, but at present things are far less certain for Obama than they were four years ago. Each candidate needs the support of their party assemblies to decide on the strategies that will prevail in November. For example, who will the vice presidential candidates be? Former Vice President Dick Cheney has stated that John McCain lost to Barack Obama because he chose Sarah Palin. All signs indicate that Joe Biden will accompany Obama in these elections. The vice president can make all the difference, but we will see to what extent next week.