Lack of Agenda Threatens Dilma’s Visit to the US

Although announced by Chief of Staff Mercandante, a state visit by Dilma Rousseff to Washington in September is far from certain. Conspiring against her is a busy calendar of receptions of foreign leaders at the White House and the difficulty on the part of both sides to form a substantive agenda in time to be presented by the Brazilian leader and her American colleague, Barack Obama.

Sources from both countries state that there is a desire to make the visit happen, but recognize that there are important obstacles in the way. The principal of these is to define what will be announced. Neither Rousseff nor the White House says they want a visit of pomp and circumstance, devoid of contact.

“They still don’t have an agenda and are seeking things which are meaningful,” Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue, said to Estadao. Skeptical about the possibility that Rousseff will go to Washington this year, Hakim points out that the White House already has two state visits planned for autumn: the president of China, Xi Jinping, and the prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe. The leaders of South Korea and Indonesia will also be in the country on official visits — less formal than that of a state visit. On top of this, Pope Francis will go to the U.S. in September and will meet with Obama.

Three other sources, who closely follow bilateral relations, think that it is not very probable that a visit will occur this year, and believe that it will happen in 2016. But they stress that this will not impede the two countries from intensifying the process of normalization of relations incited after the re-election of President Rousseff.

Bilateral ties were frayed in 2013 with the revelation that the National Security Agency spied on the president’s communications, which led to the cancellation of the planned visit to Washington that year. On the American side, the principal agent of rapprochement is Joe Biden, with whom Rousseff will meet on Sunday in Uruguay, where the two will accompany the entourage of Tabaré Vázquez. It will be their second encounter in two months. A Biden adviser said they will be discussing all relevant bilateral matters.*

Minister of Development, Industry and Foreign Commerce Armando Monteiro chose the United States as the destination of his first international trip, a decision taken by the Brazilian government as a symbol of the importance given to normalizing relations between the countries. Monteiro and his American counterparts will start to work on measures to facilitate bilateral commerce, which are important but not sufficient to secure an agenda for a state visit.

A double taxation agreement would have more weight, but its negotiation is complex. The two countries have tried for four decades to solidify a treaty in this area without success. The measures would require changes in the Brazilian legislature and confronting resistance on the potential impact on tax collection. The pressure from the private sector on Brasilia to make progress in this negotiation has increased in the past years because of the increased investment of Brazilian businesses in the USA, which would benefit from an agreement. The two countries also discussed cooperation in the areas of energy and education, but they have less weight than the issue of double taxation.

Still, without a visit, there is the possibility that Rousseff and Obama will meet on the sidelines at the Summit of the Americas in April, or at the United Nations General Assembly in September. During this time, experts on both sides will continue to work on a bilateral agenda. In March, there will be a meeting in Washington to discuss measures to facilitate commerce.

*Translator’s note: Biden’s Uruguay visit was cancelled, as he fell ill at the time.